Wednesday 21st May
By SP2A Analysis
Ayr 4.42 - Handicap - Class 5 - 7 furlongs - 14 run - Good to Firm
The Stalls are on the far side here and it's then a left hand turn into the bend before a 7 furlong run in so a low to middle draw may initially be an advantage.
I narrowed my final list down to 3 horses from the field of 14, and left out Dwindling Funds who I have added to the TRACKER, as this one makes handicap debut today and we'll need to see if mild promise results in this being a decent mark or not. Golden Valour is also added to the TRACKER and would have been a tip but for a draw in Stall 13, nn its 3rd run this season I expect a better run but certainly one to follow with a kinder draw. John L Sullivan has had a wind operation and may need the run off a break and Leap Day, runner up the last twice has a good chance again but the price is restrictive for e/w betting purposes so I will take it on.
SIR GARFIELD looks an excellent e/w punt, a Course and Distance winner last season, unpenalised for a win in an Apprentice race last time and remains on that win mark of 65. RORY is a bit more speculative for Jim Goldie, who runs several, genuine excuses with the draw last time drawn out widest and a horse who was winning off a mark of 66 last season, now running off a mark of 55 with a 7lbs claim, should really be competitive here. My 3rd rated, if either of the above is a non runner would be INANNA @ 7/1 who won over course and Distance here last time and is upped 2lbs but not the market value for me of the two preferred horses. (Northern)
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Brighton 8.30 - Handicap - Class 6 - 7 furlongs - 10 run - Good to Firm
Havana Mojito looks strong despite the penalty but of the remainder i think the each way value lies with VOLTAIC above Local Boy. A crafty reverse T/CAST on those 3 horses may be a worthwhile side bet. (RJ)
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Gowran Park 6.50 - Handicap - 1 mile - 15 run - Good
Mixed messages about the weather forecast here but on balance i think any rain will come too late to greatly influence the proceedings.
The 2nd Reserve, unlikely to get a run but well worth TRACKING is POPPADOM, who caught my eye last time - if it did get a run today, certainly worth a small e/w punt. I will also TRACK forwards SKONTONOVSKI who may have been a tip here but for a draw in the Car Park in Stall 19
The likes of Tynamite, the favourite and one to beat Harry The Rogue and Saxon KIngdom, who was runner up to that one last time were all strongly considered and I will have a small Reverse F/Cast on Harry The Rogue and Saxon Kingdom, to cover them off, but I am confident e/w value lies elsewhere .
My top rated is GIANH RIVER, runner up over Course and Distance last time when the saddle slipped late on and an obvious chance and the run style does lead me to think that in this case Stall 15 and some tactical cover may actually help. SHARE THE TREASURE is also drawn high but I have the same run style visualisation. My 3rd rated horse if you want to play enhanced odds is ASISAID who could be running in to form and who would definitely benefit if the rain arrived. (MG)
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TRACKERS
Ayr 4.42 - Roaring Ralph (noted in running last time but this is a hotter race)