Wednesday 18th September
By SP2A Analysis
Beverley 1.40 - Handicap - 1 mile 1/2 furlong - 17 run - Good
There aren't too many of these that really caught my eye and at the top end of the market I think that Starshot is vulnerable on overall form, Cryptos Dream looks a bit too tight in the market in terms of value and likelihood of winning and Tees George is probably the best of these three but not really appealing as a win only punt at around 3/1.
There were 4 that really interested me and of them the 4th rated (so reserve) is Filey Beach @ 22/1 who could be the pace angle in the race and take them a long way from a low draw. I would not discount an enhanced place for this one at very nice odds.
My top 3 rated though are CLOTHERHOME a Course and Distance winner, nice handicap mark here, Stall 9 should ensure cover and a good tow into the race and provided it gets a clear passage should be placed at the very least. TRUE NATION was a winner and runner up on first 2 runs of the season, has been rested to freshen up and running fresh may be the secret with this one and I'll be very disappointed if not bang in contention on return. COLOANE has the most consistent of profiles from this Class and was a Distance winner off 47, considered very unlucky here last time when badly hampered when starting to turn the afterburners on and a bit more luck this time should see it right in contention (North)
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Yarmouth 3.30 - Fillies Stakes - (non handicap) Class 1 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 15 run - Good
A cracking race for the Course and plenty to consider.
Rainbows Edge the Royal runner, Estrange, an impressive winner of its sole start, Karmology who has sound claims overall and Sea Just In Time, unexposed after just 4 runs head the market, but i have strong fancies elsewhere.
I would flag up as my 4th rated Making Dreams who actually led The Oaks to the 2 furlong pole and not to be lightly discounted, my 3rd rated is a 50/1 shot so worth a small side investment if you wish in MOLTEN ROCK who has been in some very good races at a mile, 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs and I do think the 10 furlong trip is optimum.
My top 2 rated though are AL ANOUD who travelled beautifully last time just fading late on and the decision to try first time cheek-pieces seems logical to just focus the horse a little more and SOUND ANGELA who may be a 5 year old now but lightly and sensible raced and another who was an eyecatcher last time going in to my notebook on her return to the track, De Souza rides for Varian and I'm very confident that the relative "old girl" of the field can show some of the younger fillies the way home (RJ)
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Tramore 4.45 - Handicap - 2 miles 7 furlongs - 14 run - Good
A number make chase debut or lack experience over fences and some aren't proven fully at this sort of trip.
So I'll take on the likes of Loup De Tallane (Chase debut), Calahill (9 lbs penalty and upped in trip), Smitty Bacall a 13 year old with an each way shout at best, and Man Of The House who ran well at Worcester last time but who may not find these fences as easy as those in the Midlands in the UK.
My top 3 are actually very clear in my mind and come with the required confidence...OCODANGO BOY returns here where the form is good and on the better ground it needs off a nice competitive handicap mark and is currently very good each way value, GREENWAY MACHINE has won and been runner up off marks of 73 and 77 the last twice over slightly shorter at this Course and looks a very obvious danger. Finally, we all know what RUDY CATRAIL can do from the front and although he's not getting any quicker at 13, on 3rd run back is now fully tuned up and with so many of these either inexperienced jumpers or not assured in terms of stamina, IF they get the fractions right, this one can really make a bold and sustained bid from the front and place at least!. (Sean)
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