Wednesday 16th October
By SP2A Analysis
A poor day yesterday although perhaps The Midwife was unlucky not to place but that's Racing, especially over the Jumps. We also see Masterpainter fall in a horrible looking incident on the AW Flat last night and can only hope that the horse and jockey are OK.
A lot of heavy rain is moving around today so just the one tip race from RJ.
Worcester 2.08 Handicap Chase - 2 miles 7 furlongs - Soft (rain showers) - 14 run
A decent sized field but a lot of them on seasonal debut and others who won't want it too soft nor anymore rain.
The 3 who are race fit caught my eye and In Rem would have a shout if recapturing form dropped in Grade but may still need this.
The percentage each way option in the race; who ticks all the right boxes; is COCONUT TWIST a 3 mile P2P winner, a winner over 20 furlongs on Soft and some decent placed Course form and the icing on the cake is the race fitness.
IF you wanted the second rated as a punt it is LERMOOS LEGEND, I'm not as confident about this one as I am about COCONUT TWIST but it's race fit from a Yard who you can never write off and also has the soft ground form and proven stamina required.
A returner off a 5-6 month break may well win this but the more attritional the Going gets the more I prefer that proven fitness as I can see a lot on seasonal debut being pulled up and not over exerted this early in the season once they start blowing. (RJ)