Wednesday 15th May
By SP2A Analysis
YORK 2.15 - Handicap 2.15 Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 14 run - Good.
I think it might be bordering on Good to Soft here once the ground gets opened up following some rain yesterday. That should place an emphasis on stamina and it's worth noting how often a bold prominent run pays dividends here if the front runners can get the fractions right.
Crystal Delight is upped from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs and gets a hefty penalty so may be vulnerable, Flash Bardot is in form but also gets a hefty penalty and rises in Class and for William Haggas, KLondike is being very well supported as you'd expect but the sum parts at the moment don't add up to the hype and a 270 day break means we'd have to take race fitness on trust. Haggas is an outstanding Trainer and human being but his short priced favourites are turned over here more often than not. You remember the winners but can easily forget the losers. Kiavah has won at Class 3 and 4 here last season, clearly likes York but the handicap mark really does scare me off.
At the top of the market I think MARAHBA THE CHAMP is the one they all have to beat but is by no means bomb proof, a Course and Distance winner, off for 230 days but I am concerned enough about possible cut in the ground to watch and see how it gets on.
My each way banker would be CHILLINGHAM and the addition of cheekpieces may really suit this prominent front runner who is race fit, off a decent mark and proven in most conditions, I think Ed Bethell will be keen to make this a stamina test from near the front and the cheekpieces may just ensure they get the fractions spot on. I would not put anyone off a small flutter however on TWO BROTHERS who I tipped to win at Thirsk last time out at nice e/w Odds, this lets be clear is a step up in Class and off a penalty but Mick Easterby would only normally tilt at a race like this if he genuinely felt the horse was making rapid progress, he will have calculated what he might win here for a place as opposed to winning another Class 4 race and that makes the experiment well worth a small flutter (NORTH)
----
YORK 5.20 - Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 20 run - Good
This race may not be quite as deep as the 20 strong field suggests.
WAHRAAN is the one they all have to beat if you want a win saver type bet but I am happy to take it on in a field of this size and in likely conditions. Bringbackmemories was a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 74 last season, I think it may benefit from this run and is reluctantly overlooked here. Arrange and Gibside are a pair i'm adding to the TRACKER following this race, Arrange would want Good to Firm and Gibside may need the run but i'm confident given ground and fitness both will be winning later on. One at a big price who intrigues me and who may be worth a small side punt if that suits you is Piecederesistance, the Yard is in decent form and very streaky and a number have been running above expectations on their first time out.
I'm very keen though on DARK MOON RISING here, a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 82 in Class 4 and back in to Class 4 after a couple of tries in better company and with the benefit of a run it'll be very disappointing if not bang in contention. At bigger Odds both STRAWMAN who has had a run and has performed well over Course and Distance before off this sort of mark and GASTRONOMY who arrives fit off the AW and who has a very competitive looking turf mark should both give us a very good run for our money at nice e/w Odds. (NORTH)
-----
FFOS LLAS 4.30 Handicap Chase - 3 miles 4 furlongs - 14 run - Good to Soft
Amateur won this race last year off a similar mark but on Good ground, out of form but has to be mentioned in a field of vulnerable types. Tip Top Mountain is one that Robin has flagged up in his Tracker but another who needs to revive.
I'm very keen though on SILVER IN DIISGUISE who has won over further and who is back to a winning mark and PEEJAYBEE who is stepped up in trip by the Bowens but one who has run through the line and looked like this extra couple of furlongs may suit on a couple of occasions. (DT)
----
TIPPERARY 8.00 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 16 run (3 reserves) Good
I'm going to TRACK both One For Daisy and SNOW PUNT who are unexposed 3 mile P2P winners who are stepping up to their optimum 3 mile trip under Rules for the first time here and I am confident enough to invest in SNOW PUNT in a race that lacks depth.
Sally Attwell looks vulnerable at the price, My Friend The Wind is always best fresh and ram well on return and will be a big danger but I fancied a couple just that bit more. Cher Why Not is very consistent in this type of race, off this sort of mark at this trip, why isn't she a tip?, purely on the basis that her tipperary form is overall poor and not compelling enough, but always a horse to fear. Macs Xpress will be a danger if getting this increased trip and another not lightly overlooked.I am also keen to point out that but for having a run just 2 days ago Tilloughna would have been 3rd best rated instead of 5th best rated in my final analysis just behind My Friend the wind.
My clear top rated though is WILD HUNT and I will be frankly disappointed if he's not winning this, he's finally back to the last 2022 win mark and really caught my eye last time out. In addition to SNOW PUNT , I feel that SQUIRE O HARA is well worth some money too, noted staying on with some vim last time and interesting on some P2P form when younger which suggests the step up in trip may reward Tony Martin. (MG)
--------