Wednesday 14th May
By SP2A Analysis
YORK 2.10 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Firm
A fair few near the top end of the market are better currently in terms of AW or Turf form on softer than Good. IF the ground is as advertised and on the Firm side of Good by the usually very reliable Course data, then 3 of the 12 runners stood out for me.
MARAHBA THE CHAMP had an excellent spell in 2023 but disappointed last season. The handicap mark though has dropped as a result and is now 5lbs below last winning mark and very interesting that they go for first time cheekpieces. It's a speculative punt but with underfoot conditions to suit one I am confident to take. PARADIAS is on a career high mark but really does run best on Good to Firm and on this occasion looks good each way value and gets a decent berth in Stall 4 to run off the shoulder of the pace into the straight.
If you wanted a big priced on for a small e/w punt then the Charlie Johnston trained LA PULGA is a front runner who can dominate, stall 11 is not ideal but if the horse can get the the rail and set the fractions, we have seen before here on Good to Firm how important an early position can be. (The Advisor)
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YORK 2.42 - Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 16 run - Good to Firm
A typically tough handicap but the market and the analysis to a degree has to accept that anecdotally the winner will come from a Low Draw, have form at the Track and on Going Good or better.
That means that the likes of Ramazan who drops back in trip but is Drawn in Stall 10, Holkham Bay who really is better with "soft" in the description, Dark Thirty, who is best fresh and may be over the top on past evidence on 3rd run having won well for me at Doncaster in late March and several others at the top of the market, have a draw bias to overcome.
The pair drawn 1 and 2 , Prince Of Pillo at 16/1 , who may be better on the AW and First Folio at 12/1 , who is being heavily backed possibly as a result of it being a Tom Segal tip, will be likely contenders but didn't quite make my top 3, but very dangerous nonetheless and reserves in that order, should we have a non runner.
I prefer, in preference order, WE NEVER STOP and BERGERAC from the Kevin Ryan yard who have an excellent record in this race. Drawn 6 and 5 respectively WE NEVER STOP is the most likely pace angle whilst BERGERAC on a going day loves to just sit on the shoulder of a pacemaker and deliver a sustained effort over the final furlong or so. I'll be very disappointed if this pair don't enter the final furlong right at the front of the race. With enhanced places, I think that COMMANCHE FALLS whose record of 0-10 last season belies some cracking efforts in races possibly tougher than this, but who runs off a mark 5lbs lower than last winning mark as a result, and who needed a seasonal debut recently, could be one of the few to come from off the pace and nick a place from Stall 4. (Northern)
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TIPPERARY 7.50 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1 furlong - 18 run - Good to Yielding
A competitive heat with 3 reserves in the wings so guaranteed odds to 5th place.
At big prices I think thaAg Obair Go Crua, whose runs belie a few glimmers of form and who steps up in trip could outrun its Odds. West Of Carrig who was disappointing before going to the P2P fields was running well when falling last time back over regulation fences, but may be better in that sphere and Joes Turn, a winner for us last time out, but who gets a 6lb penalty and whose form is far better at KIlbeggan than here, was my 4th rated in final analysis.
I'm confident though on the good ground on my top 3 who are NAVY WAVES whose move back up in trip is a plus, goes well on the ground and has some solid place form and deserves a win, SPATMAN DE CERISY whose overall form is very moderate but whose best run last season was here in the corresponding race in similar conditions and BALLERINA BOXER who showed clear signs of running in to form last time when very unlucky in running. The handicapper has upped the mark by 5lbs but this pretty unexposed ex 3 mile P2P winner looks to be on the move in terms of delivering potential into tangible race form. (Michael)
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TRACKER
York 2.10 Shagran (noted last time early season but underfoot conditions not sure to help - one to keep following)