Wednesday 11th September
By SP2A Analysis
Carlisle 3.25 - Handicap - Class 6 - 6 furlongs - 16 run - Soft
This is as tough a 6 furlongs as there is in the UK up a steady climb and the contours do favour the higher numbers (stand side) usually when it's on the soft side, though not exclusively.
Sounds Of Spring is the one the market thinks is the one they all have to beat but with a hefty 7 lbs penalty and a win at Ffos Llas in an absolute mud bath, I think it's opposable and vulnerable. The Gat Blade will have solid chances each way and the possibly regressive Asadjumeriah may at some point find a level it can be competitive off and neither is discounted lightly. I feel the same about both Maries Secret who will enjoy the Going and Mrs Trump who may be slightly high in the handicap. The likes of Igmar Lamar from the Goldie yard and the ever consistent John Kirkup add to a rather long initial short list ultimately discarded.
I was left with 4 that I had most confidence in and with 16 runners and guaranteed enhanced odds I will invest in 3 of them. The 4th rated is Pipers Fort who has a soft ground win off a mark of 52, runs off 53 and ticked every ox apart from a berth in stall 5 which may be a disadvantage.
Clear top rated for me is ATOMISE who has some Course and Distance winning and placed form off marks of 57 and 58, runs off 59, likes cut and drawn 11 should be in the thick of the action despite top weight. The Draw should enable both MISS CALCULATION who has soft ground form, proven stamina as a 6 and 7 furlong winner and a hig stall number and BACK TOMORROW who again ticks all of the other right boxes to optimise the clear chances they have here at nice e/w prices. (North)
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Worcester 5.10 - Presenting Nelly
Worcester 6.40 Indian Sunbird
A return from Robin who has sent the following assessment of his selections and who will ease back into "full analysis" in the coming weeks. No lack of confidence in these selections however, just under orders to ease his way back in with regard to "computer / screen time"
Presenting Nelly - A Course and Distance winner who needed a run at Uttoxeter , given time and no doubt a few really solid training sessions since and sure to arrive here fully prepped and ready to go in what is a very decent and competitive handicap
Indian Sunbird - a solid sequence until a really untidy uneat at the first fence last time. I've watched that back a few times and the horse just missed the break, was rather driven at the fence a one just in front made an error which clearly caught the eye of the jockey if not the horse....we'll forgive that as a blip and on the previous form the course runs and proven stamina are big positives (Robin).