Tuesday 28th January
By SP2A Analysis
LIMERICK 1.35 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 5 furlongs - 14 run - Heavy
The hot favourite is Birdsandthebees but this Chaser is upped in trip and not sure to appreciate the Going so the early price looks very short. Annamaymurt is one of the few with credible form but also steps up in trip and isn't a confirmed mud lover. The trip and ground will stretch Garcon Deux but he was in my short list of 5 here and should be capable of finishing in one of the front 5 positions on known form. God Help Us has shown a modicum of form in Rules races and in the P2P fields and is one I will TRACK forwards as likely to need this off a 10 month break. Mullanow has won a P2P race but has been dire under Rules so far but may come good at some point.
I was left with 2 confident selections, a long shot to keep an eye on and a reserve who would be a big danger if getting a run. The reserve is old favourite ROBYNDEGLORY @ 12/1 who drops in distance and that may mitigate the fact that the horse is not great in heavy Going but OK in soft and he could and should place here if running so I would have a side bet with a run on that basis.
MACIVER was very impressive winning a chase last time and has some decent hurdle form and runs off a very nice looking hurdle mark of 85. The trip and ground will suit and he loves the mud and if he adopts the same tactics and gets the fractions right they may well not see him once the tape drops until the finish line. GETAWAY MASTER is usually very competitive off marks around 80, sluiced home by 13 lengths off that sort of mark last season and got clobbered by a 10lbs rise, still on a high mark but the lack of depth in this race suggests that if repeating the form of that winning run he should have more than enough to place here.
For those who like an outsider for a small nibble there are really very very few options here but if there is one it may be WINTER CARNIVAL whose best recent run by a long chalk was over 2 miles 6 furlongs on heavy ground at Thurles and whilst that looks out of kilter with subsequent efforts, anything like that here could reap an enhanced place run off a 10lbs lower mark and a 7lbs Claim. (Michael)
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Newcastle 4.05 Novice Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 6 furlongs - 11 run - Soft
I see this as a match race between Glen Road who is upped in trip after showing promise for Sue Smith and REAGROVE LORD who has placed over slightly shorter and further and who therefore has the assured stamina. I will have a WIN bet of REAGROVE LORD and cover off the F/Cast with a reverse F/C on Glen Road. (If the price slips to 5/1 or higher on Reagrove Lord an each way saver at your discretion may interest some)
Very few of the others have any credible form, LUCKY SOLDIER would look a bancker for the 3rd spot if you want the each way bet (or T/Cast perm). One to TRACK longer term for the summer jumping is Donnys Fortune, a 2 time P2P winner on Firm ground who makes handicap debut here and one who could be winning small races when the hooves are rattling in the summer months (Northern)
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At CHEPSTOW in the 3.17 Handicap Chase the each way banker looks to be TWILIGHT GLORY an impressive tip win at Lingfield last time out who has conditions to suit.
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