Tuesday 27th May
By SP2A Analysis
REDCAR 4.20 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 12 run - Good (rain)
I narrowed this down to a shortlist of 5 horses and I think that Ravishing Beauty is one who is coming down to a potentially nice handicap mark and one who culd be winning soon and Electric Avenue is probably best on the AW and may be better suited at a mile to a more tactical race around a bend.
EVELYNS PHOENIX is a Course winner and in terms of the market is the stable second string, should come on for a recent run as many in the Yard do and I think 12-14/1 is great each way value. POETS DAWN is the stables most favoured runner in the market and may need every yard of the trip, rain taking the sting out of the ground will help this one though and I'll be disappointed if one of them doesn't win. At bigger Odds it is hard to leave out RATAFIA and the more it rains the better for this one, so bear in mind of it does turn Good to Soft for possibly a small e/w punt later in the afternoon. (Northern)
---
BALLINROBE 8.00 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Good (rain)
The top 4 in the market are all priced in the 4-7/1 range but may be vulnerable, especially if the Going turns softer. Spinning Web would be better over fences and no rain, Westernsunrise has been off for 80 days and carries a 6lbs penalty and I'd have trip and Going concerns about Tell Nobody Nothin if it rains as forecast. It's hard to quantify the ability of the Elliott handicap debutant Boston Jury and the rain is also a concern for the otherwise well handicapped and genuinely feared Evans Secret who was my 4th best rated but would have been higher IF we had no rain forecast.
My top 3 rated though and all backable if speculative in nature with enhanced place odds are in preference order; KINGKONG CLERGUES a 3 mile P2P winner noted staying on well over slightly shorter last time and one who can win races off this sort of mark when finding the right trip. TOMAS O'MAILLE who won over the Course last time over a furlong shorter, I don't think the extra furlong will be any problem and I think he can overcome a 5lbs penalty too and go very close again. More speculative and one i will invest in but also TRACK forwards is LADIAM who looks best of those at bigger prices, 10lbs below last winning mark, slowly returning to form last season after a 14 month break previously, has had a run and one i very much want to keep close tabs on. (Sean)
----