Tuesday 25th June
By SP2A Analysis
NEWTON ABBOT 3.30 - Handicap Chase Class 5 - 2 miles 5 furlongs - 13 run - Good
A 13 runner field and at the top end of the market are Belgarum who ended a frustrating spell with a 16 length win over 2 miles and 3 furlongs last time on second run after a wind operation. It gets an 11lbs penalty for what looks like a weaker race win, and with concerns too that this trip of 2 miles 5 furlongs might stretch it stamina wise, I don't think 7/2 or similar is great "win value". American Gerry has been a runner up the last twice here over Course and Distance on Good ground, a little unlucky last time but 12 stones in likely oppressive heat would not be ideal and another that isn't great win value and not much e/w value.
At bigger Odds it is worth TRACKING Scrumpy Box on seasonal debut off a break of 257 days, this one suffered a gashed leg in winning over Course and Distance last summer off a mark of 81 and is worth following for some of the July and August Fixtures here.
My top 2 in terms of each way value also have an added intrigue and twist. BEN BUIE has had a run and should strip fitter for it for Martin Keighley and it will be disappointing if this one isn't placed at worst, Sean Bowen adds to the confidence. FAME AND FUN runs for Paul Nicholls and although one of the lesser horses in the stable and at a price not normally associated with the yard, is by no means a no hoper. He showed real promise early last year and has disappointed since but the addition of cheek pieces and a tongue tie and a slight increase in trip suggests they are continuing to do all they can to unlock the potential. Harry Cobden adds to the confidence in the saddle.
S Bowen and H Cobden is likely to be a season long joust and intense battle again for the Jockey's title, others will have high hopes but when these two meet there will be an extra edge and as a punter that means you can be sure they will be very keen to win and try to eek out an early advantage, especially when in direct competition. Hopefully this can unlock a much needed winner for us. (Spec)