Tuesday 16th July
By SP2A Analysis
KILLARNEY 6.45 - Handicap 1 mile - 15 run - Good
This is a tight left handed track where there is no Sprint Track so this is the minimum distance for Flat Races. The start in a chute at the end of the Straight so that avoids the very turn out of the Straight, the Course is a bit like an egg-shape and can suit prominent runners.
I was left with a short list of 3 runners having discarded Alpha Capture, a Willie Mullins ex William Haggas horse who has yet to really fulfil potential, he could have found a level here and may have been adroitly placed, but on pure form analysis, not for me, but obviously feared purely for connections. Pink Socks was running off basement marks this time last year including a couple of poor runs here, I think best avoided here off this inflated mark. Blackberry Jack has Course form in 2022 off a mark of 75, has dropped to a mark of 62 and may just revive.
I rated Blackberry Jack very closely with CHURCH MOUNTAIN @ 12/1 who won this corresponding race last year off a mark of 73, he's moved Yards since and not currently clicking but off a mark of 67, was slightly more compelling that the other one. With 15 runners and odds to 4th generally IF you want the 3rd option it would be CHURCH MOUNTAIN.
My clear top 2 rated though are GUNSIGHT who has some decent form here overall, off a declining mark that really does look competitive again, drawn 5 , I will be frankly disappointed if this one isn't in the first 3 home at decent e/w odds.
EXPOUND is a shorter price but still an each way punt, raced very prominently last time and almost got home over slightly further, similar tactics over slightly shorter at this "trappy track" may pay rich rewards, a draw in Stall 11 will require a decent start, but if getting to the front without expending too much energy, this one could lead them a merry dance. (MG)