Tuesday 14th May

CHEPSTOW 8.10 Handicap - Class 6 - 7 furlongs - Good to Soft - 14 run

 

At the head of the market Trainer John O'Shea runs both Romanovich and Letter of The law who won and were runner up respectively in 2 Divisions of this corresponding race at the same Meeting last year. Both have significantly dropped in terms of handicap since then. Both have to be feared as does any past Course winner on this undulating Track, Romanovich though may need the run and Letter Of The Law may have significantly regressed. I can't tip them on this basis but a small reverse F/Cast may be a logical and interesting trend punt for some?

 

Ibiza Rocks has dropped to an eye-catchingly low mark with a succession of poor runs, the type to find a level at some point but you'd want to see a glimmer of improvement first. Port Noir is solid in this grade but is not at its best on grass and rain may have scuppered its chances for now. Both Fact Or Fable, who is a course and Distance specialist and Diamondsinthesand who has a decent Course and Distance profile too look very dangerous off tonights handicap marks and would almost certainly have been the 2 tips had this race been run last week, before the weekend rain. Good to Soft though would not be ideal for either but we will TRACK both for future races here specifically on Good or Good to Firm ground.

 

I'm most keen therefore in these conditions in BROXI who rarely runs on turf now and since moving Yards, but who has a 7 furlong Soft win in October 2022 off a mark of 65 and runs off a mark of 49 here. That's over a stone better off and the AW form suggests that the horse hasn't regressed by a Stone. DOONBEG FARMER has some Course form at a mile in soft conditions last summer, fading into a place late on. This 7 furlongs trip after a prep run looks ideal as does a handicap mark of 48.  

 

Try to get on early and take a price as I've a feeling both may be well backed during the day. (TA)