Tuesday 13th May
By SP2A Analysis
BEVERLEY 3.42 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 1/2 furlong - 13 run - Good to Firm
It's a competitive heat with plenty of solid Course specialists in contention, but this is the type of race where form analysis can also allow a sort of "visualisation" as to how a race may work out.
In Alfie Boy, who is on a 3 timer and Bobacious, who is upped in trip, we have a pair of very prominent front runners, it's not hard to see Bobacious go off at the sort of pace that won't endure and Alfie Boy pulling hard to match him and the pair fading close home. Cosmos Raj is a danger despite a 4lbs penalty and a wide draw, Dr Rio is a Course and Distance specialist who is not lightly discounted and Park Street another with Course and Distance winning form.
The type of race we may see though I think benefits both CASILLI and COOLREE, who I visualise staying on up the hill in the closing stages, passing tiring front runners in the final furlong.
CASILLI is a Course and Distance specialist, has come down to a very nice handicap mark and will thrive off a strong pace, COOLREE won this race last year off a similarly high draw and although he has notionally left Amy Murphy, who is now training in France, the new Trainer was very much her right hand man and Assistant and the Yard I believe is the same. A 4lb lower weight this time too bodes well. (Northern)
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CHEPSTOW 3.50 - Handicap - Class 6 - 7 furlong - 14 run - Good to Firm
Another tight low grade handicap with some probable market value.
ROMANOVICH @ 11/2 early price! is the market leader and has a probable chance of winning as opposed to possibly winning and at around 3/1 would represent good win only value, if you want the win saver.. He was my 3rd best rated in this race.
It is always a risk to discount a Wintle trained horse here and there are a pair in My Clementine and Ravenglass, they don;t jump off the page form wise, but never underestimate a punting yard at their favourite track. Ajrad has a very good Course record and goes for cheek pieces which have worked before and is another serious danger whilst Diamond Katie, is like her Trainer Garce Harris a standing dish at Chepstow, she is the type to "pop up" at any time and I've added her today to th TRACKER but with a very clear note that she runs best when having "a hood on" and at the point they turn to that specific headgear, we'll be waiting.
My top 2 rated on the day are EMBARKED a prominent front running type who could get in to a lovely rhythm here on the undulations it clearly handles, a drop back from a mile to 7 furlongs really jumps off the page and I'll be disappointed if it doesn't set sail and stay in front. FACT OF FABLE is another who likes this track and who also drops back in trip and runs off an eyecatching mark and the fact he is a nice spare ride for David Probert, having been ridden by a Claimer for most of his runs, is another big tick in the right box for me. (RJ)
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SLIGO 8.00 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Good
The Miracle man tops the market and is a solid win saver bet at around 7/2 or higher for those interested. He was rated in my top 4 but I do think each way's value lies elsewhere.
Masterboy Davis is a very lightly raced and unexposed Elliott runner but whether this trip will suit is anyone's guess?. I have added Let's Do This to the TRACKER from today, I think the run is needed and will benefit the horse who is an unexposed, lightly raced horse with definite promise. Betty Dutton is an admirably honest and consistent mare who regularly places but rarely wins and whilst a win would be deserved a few at bigger prices look better e/w value.
ILBEDARE is my top rated one, a decent Course record, upped in trip and if getting it, which I think it will and off a nice mark. KILLINURE LASS really piqued my interest and jumped off the page at a very nice e/w price, the bare frm is not overly compelling but fully fit now after a couple of runs and off a falling mark and with distinct promise in one run a while back at this sort of trip in these conditions, I will be disappointed if we're not in the enhanced places at last. My third best rated IF we have a non runner and worthy of a mention is OSKAR HIGH a veteran, just out of the handicap, but a Course and Distance winner, who is best fresh! (Sean)
(We did consider the 7.50 at KIllarney where Robbies Rock and The Banger Doyle look solid but too many others in with chances)