Tuesday 11th June
By SP2A Analysis
SOUTHWELL 6.05 Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 13 run - Good to Soft
The Going should be as advertised but some showers during the day will mean it's not going to dry out to any degree.
The rain is a negative for the consistent The Wise Traveller whose trainer Sarah Humphrey has a terrific strike rate as TRACKER followers will know very well. Backinaction is one I'm going to TRACK after today's Handicap debut for Evan Williams as it looks a nice medium term prospect in lowly grades. At a bigger price Prince Nino is of some interest back on a mark of 87 upped in trip and one decent run last year suggests this might be a rare realistic opportunity for this one.
I have 4 who are fairly closely rated in the field of 13 so the third and fourth rated who are discarded for tipping purposes are the consistent and dangerous Justshortofabubble who lacked the confidence for a win tip and the value really for an each way punt and also at a bigger price, Lions Vigil for whom the trip looks ideal and who has a should of a place on best form.
I do think that HOBBS DELIGHT is a worthy favourite and looks by far the most likely winner for a win bet (or if it drifts to 4/1 a possible e/w banker at your discretion) and of the rest I think the real e/w value in this race is CAMILLAS CHOICE who arrived in the UK last season with decent solid Irish form at this sort of trip and comparable grade and who has had a run already this season for Gary Hamer and who is back to the mark of 88 from which she ran her best race in the UK last August. The rain won't be an issue and I'll be very disappointed if we're not in the first 3 here. (dt)
---
SLIGO 7.45 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 13 run - Good -
I'll start with the 1st reserve Al Aghaidh who would be of interest and worth a small side bet if running here based on some nice earlier 3 mile P2P form
Flicker Of Hope goes for the treble after wins off marks of 90 and 99 but faces very different going here and on balance I think opposable off a mark of 107. Lovely Reaction is also unproven on this decent summer ground and also overlooked for that reason. Solo Flight is added to the TRACKER from today as this ex 3 mile P2P is thrown into a handicap after 5 poor runs off an inadequate 2 mile runs the last 5 times from a "canny yard". Ivane is another unproven in this better ground and one who ran poorly on its only previous Sligo run. The Dabbler had one very eye-catching Hurdle run when finishing placed behind Maxxum at Punchestown a few years back and has been Chasing since.
I am confident though that my top two rated TRUE OR FALSE and NO FUSSING are the pair most suited to conditions here at this trip and on this ground. TRUE OR FALSE was a 20/1 bolter last time but I think worth a punt again despite the penalty as the signs had been that a step up to this trip would be ideal. NO FUSSING needed a recent return and ran a sequence of consistent efforts at this trip over Hurdles last season. The mark and Going are fine and I'll be somewhat peeved if this one isn't placed at the very least (MG)