Tuesday 10th September
By SP2A Analysis
Lingfield 5.05 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Standard
At the top end of the market, I think that Lost In Time may be better over further and will need everything to drop right at 10 furlongs although a decent pace looks assured. Forever Proud is definitely the one to beat but taking 5/2 or lower in a Class 6 AW race is generally on balance the way to lose money. Star Of Epsom has an excellent Course and Distance record but is getting no favours from the handicapper and may struggle to find an early berth with several fancied contenders also out wide.
There are clear pace angles with No Such Luck, who will go to the front and not be pegged back one day and Iftikaar and the probability is that these two will beat each other up and fade in the final 300 yards and set the race up nicely for a closer slingshotting off the turn and coming over the top of the field.
With that vision in mind I'm most keen on MAGICAL DRAGON who made a nice return after a short break to freshen up last time out and should be primed for a big run here and LAURENTIA a Course and Distance winner on her Course and Distance winning mark who is relatively lightly raced and the booking of a more experienced and stronger race rider in William Carson really catches my eye here.
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Newcastle 8.30 - Handicap - Class 6 - 14 run - 1 mile - Standard to Slow
My favourite trip on any AW track in the UK down this unforgiving mIle straight.
A number of unexposed 3 year olds against some more exposed but proven veterans.
I'm content to take on the likes of KIngs School despite a falling mark, Havana Smoke, on stamina concerns, Bateman for similar trip reasons and Love Warrior who has moved to O'Meara from the Johnstons but who has yet to really find an optimum trip, I fear this one so will watch it with interest.
Pop Favourite is a Course and Distance winner who will need this surely off a 137 days break but i have added it to the TRACKER as one to follow here. Rebecca Menzies runs a pair here of which I only discarded Headabovetherest at the final cut and with some reluctance.
I was left with a clear top 3 in my ratings.
STRANGERONTHESHORE has a Course and Distance win off a mark of 62, can transition quickly from Turf to AW and looked to be both returning to form and a shade unlucky last time out and a mark of 58 looks VERY generous.
LOUBIERE for Redecca Menzies just gets the call over RETIREMENT BECKONS , the 3 year old Menzies horse is well worth another go at a mIle here, staying on strongly to and through the line over 7 furlongs here last time and a pedigree that strongly suggests 1 mile will be her chosen trip as a 4 year old. RETIREMENT BECKONS will be a handy reserve if we need one, a hold up horse who will need the breaks can who can find a devastating late turn of foot when the gaps open and if you want a small side investment then 25/1 ish is a very appealing e/w price to the 4th place!
(Both AW)