Thursday 31st October
By SP2A Analysis
Bath 3.28 - Handicap Chase - Class 6 - 1 mile - 12 run - Soft
At this stage of the season I'm happy to take on favourites especially in this sort of ground and whilst Clotog and Albus Anne are going to take some beating, I don't think either is bombproof.
Genta caught my eye on handicap debut and connections are respected but a few had stronger claims and another pair to keep an eye on are I Can't Believe an uneposed handicap debutant with a 1 mile pedigree and the more exposed First Greyed, who I have added to my TRACKER despite the proximity to the end of the season as this returning horse off a years break clearly has ability and if they can get a run or two in to it there is no doubt they will hope that form remains.
My top 2 rated are well clear of the field though and a third one, who will be a handy reserve, also deserves a mention.
DARVEL ticks all the boxes here for me and looks to have some each way value a Course and Distance winner and runner up off a mark around the mid 60's running off a mark of 64 today.
KING OF THE DANCE has placed Course and Distance form off a mark in the low 50's last time out and a repeat of that run would surely see it bang in contention and the drying ground here will aid its chances.
The other just to flag up is Eye Of The Water @ 11/1 who is a Course and Distance winner who is slowly returning form off a rapidly declining mark and just feels like one that will find a comfort zone soon that it can be competitive off and enjoy its racing. (Advisor)
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Bath 3.58 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 13 run - Soft
I think that the 3 year olds look stronger here overall than the more exposed types.
Sonnet Star is a worthy favourite but upped 5lbs more after a few nice runs and may just be vulnerable now and the second favourite Muqinah is still really finding a level and so far more about potential than anything really quantifiable form wise. I fear the course form of Golden Phase but the Going and an inflated mark just put me off this one too.
I am going to TRACK Ectocross who showed some real promise last year and who has clearly had niggling injuries with another 4 month break since its last run.
I anticipated some 4th place enhancements so I'll give you my top 2 rated for tips and a third one as a back up.
MEET ME IN MERAKI has a Course win and a win at the Distance and was well clear of the remainder when runner up last time and a repeat of that would suffice here I feel. ALIKA BREEZE was a 50/1 Course winner on penultimate run, got rather bogged down in very deep ground at Leicester last time, the step up in trip is no concern and returning here should deliver another strong showing at around 10/1
My 3rd rated is ROSE BRANCH at nice odds who has decent form earlier in the season, has been freshened up and looks one with a decent each way shout. (RJ)
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Stratford 3.35 - Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Good to Soft
This is very competitive and whilst a whole host make a reappearance as we saw the other day at Chepstow it is becoming harder, in advance; to know how far forward some are and whether others will need the run. Going on past evidence though I feel the likes of Joe Cotton, Mortens Lean and How And Ever might just need the run but all three are well worth following and TRACKING forwards.
Move With The Beat is highly thought of but made a significant jumping error too soon at Exeter last time to know how fit and forward he is, wisely pulled up when chance had gone suggests they will take their time with this one and in terms of an immediate investment I think so should we. Coleenymore is very consistent and its less the break and more the handicap mark and weight burden that just puts me off here.
The one at bigger odds who came closest to a speculative poke is Supposedtobe, upped half a mile by the Bowens and ridden by Sean an early 20/1 looks excessive IF the horse gets the trip.
I really do think that on this occasion a 3/1 > 7/2 price for HARRY'S HOPE is good win value and I will take this Ben Pauling prospect who has a 3 mile P2P background to handle a 6lbs penalty and a step up in trip.
The one to accompany him for an investment at nice e/w odds is KAPAMAZOV who has proven stamina over further than this over Hurdles, had a nice spin over fences last time and just looks overpriced at anything around 20/1 on that evidence and the past hurdle form and with a bit of race fitness in the locker too (RT)
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