Thursday 29th August
By SP2A Analysis
Navan 5.35 - Handicap - 1 miles 6 furlongs - 23 run - Good
This is a true test of stamina on one of the best Racecourses anywhere. A deep field too with plenty at bigger prices having some more than decent form at this sort of trip in the past.
At the head of the market, and I'd really be looking at something like 10/1 the field in a race of this depth, the likes of Charlie Darling, Tannery Park and Butterfly Garden look solid enough but not really great value and they may be somewhat vulnerable to an improver of a dark horse laid out for this sort of stamina test.
At the top end of the market though the one who most excites me is the top weight PARADISE LOST who also has to contend with Stall 20. I don't think they'll adopt nor need to adopt over enthusiastic tactics though here as the horse has a touch of class and should be able to find a smooth passage turning in and then grind them down up the long and unyielding straight. The horse is actually very well handicapped on proven form and I think the class act of the field.
You can make claims for Enquire Within who won this race last year off a mark of 47 but who runs off 55 here and so may be a little high in the weights and the likes of Molly Hall and Futurum Regum would also have very solid chances but also possibly be just a little high in the weights now but genuine dangers.
At bigger prices I can see bold runs outrunning their Odds from Velvet And Vine at around 40/1 and if you'd fancy a few quid each way on a 50/1 type, as many of you seem to like to do, then have a long hard look at BREGAGH @ 66/1 who has decent Hurdles form and some very solid Course runs here at a variety of trips.
There are 3 more in the middle sector of this market who are well worth an each way punt to enhanced places and I'd look to split a couple of points each way between them. RED SECRET needed a recent return at 2 miles, the drop in trip will suit and with that run behind him, I'll be disappointed if he's not in the first 5-6 home here. SUSIESPARKLE had a career best run last time out over an extended 1 mile 5 furlongs staying on well through the line and it looks like the penny may have dropped now for this one and a big run again would be no surprise. Finally WHISPERING HOPES for Elliott, whose form has been mixed of late but who clearly has an engine and just needs to settle better and this big field may help if they can switch the horse off and run a quiet first mile, clearly one with an engine and at around 33/1 looks cracking value. (MG)
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Newbury 6.30 - Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile - 14 run - Good
There are some unexposed 3 year olds, a few still not fully exposed 4 year olds and some more seasoned handicappers in this deep and competitive race.
I am happy to take on the penalised and possibly exposed Devoirs Chose at the head of the market and the very unexposed pair of 3 year olds Rogue Encore and Never better, who have both been gelded so lined up for long handicap careers. Glendower drops in trip and may find this a bit easier than some recent runs but the jury is still out for me. At bigger Odds both Brindley, whose best run has been over Course and Distance and Youarenotforgiven a Course winner at 7 furlongs both look over-priced and were not lightly discounted. I will TRACK the Channon 3 year old Brindley forwards.
My clear top rated is ISLAND BANDIT a Course and Distance winner who won twice in this month last season, has come down to almost that winning sort of handicap mark and gets the able assistance of Silvestre De Souza. I would just make the unexposed 4 year old RICH for the Hannon yard who was quite highly tried and very well thought of as a 3 year old and who may finally have found a niche it can win from the second best rated, and IF you wanted a 3rd option (or a handy reserve in case of a non runner) then have a look at PRESSURES ON who is an unexposed 3 year old whose pedigree is crying out for this trip and who looks the most dangerous of the 3 year olds to me. I've added this one to the TRACKER too. (TA)
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