Thursday 27th June
By SP2A Analysis
Newcastle 4.10 Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 12 run Standard
This would be a decent quality Class 2 field on turf and more so on the AW and the angle I wish to take is very much to consider AW form, especially here. Newcastle's 1 mile Straight AW track is unique in the UK and is a genuine test of both stamina but also the ability of the jockey to judge pace and tactics. With 3 days of AW action here, I do expect the surface to be very well harrowed to start proceedings and that adds to my view that some proven Course form will be a big asset.
The favourite is a typical William Haggas ``unexposed could be anything" type, they win some, they seem to lose more. Elnajmm is a lightly raced 4 year old who has been gelded and returns from a 317 days break having just it's 5th run. At around 2/1, I don't think it represents any win value, it may hose up but there are some very solid rivals who will make it a true test.
Haggas won this race last year with LATTAM, now with Julie Camacho and after a nice return this one looks primed to run another big race off just 3lbs higher from a Yard who are really heading in an upwards trajectory specialising in this type of horse. It ticks all the boxes for me.
Brunch ran in this race last year and is lightly raced these days so represents a significant threat. Farasi Lane is an AW winner but usually better in Class 3 and 4 races and this is a decent Class 2 quality field. All The KIngs men has won on this Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton but would be better suited to 7 furlongs I believe on a Straight Course configuration like this. Gunlock has a Maiden win over Course and Distance and just it's 5th run here, from the always dangerous Karl Burke yard he is one to TRACK forwards which we will do and just hope he clicks next time and not this time.
The betting value of the race may well be HELM ROCK who has AW wins off marks of 86 and 94 including over Course and Distance, he's had a run and off a mark of 96 looks primed. The Kubler's are very astute Trainers and the booking of Silvestre De Souza who is tactically brilliant on Tracks like this just adds to the logic that here is a horse who ticks every box at a very nice e/w price (AW)
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Newmarket 4.30 - Handicap - Class 3 - 7 furlongs - 10 run - Good to Firm
This is a very tight and competitive race and you could make some sort of positive case for all of them.
Havana Blue has had a wind operation and may now be able to run to full merits and would be a big danger, Persuasion has some good Course and Distance form but may be best on slightly less Firm Going, the rest as mentioned all have claims of some sort.
I would be reluctant NOT to have a small stake on WAITING ALL NIGHT despite their only being 10 runners, this one has some good July Course form and off a nice mark at 12/1 would be the best value price wise in the race. The main selection though is DARKNESS a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 91 who looks primed now especially with that proven Good to Firm Course winning form and a mark of 84 today is something of an eye-catcher (TA)
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