Thursday 26th September
By SP2A Analysis
Pontefract 4.20 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 11 run - Good to Soft > possibly Soft
I'm not sure that 3/1 is a value price on the favourite Clever Relation on known form and although rain and the trip is OK for Elforleather (my 2nd rated) the mark looks a little high and the horse has also been on the go for a long while. That one can be a handy reserve in the event of a non-runner but in truth, only one really stands out for me in these conditions.
TURNER GIRL will get the trip no problem, won't mind the rain or changing ground and with a visor added just to settle the horse a price around 8/1 looks a solid each way punt. (North)
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Newmarket 5.05 Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile - Good to Soft - Softening - 14 run
Classic Encounter makes handicap debut and has no proven form on softening ground, Amsterdam has form figures of 2-5-2-2 but doesn't look completely genuine in terms of win value. Where's Freddy is capable but looks a bit high in the handicap now after a decent summer. Lake Theo drops back on the trip but going again would be a big question mark. Mr Baloo is a 3 year old who hasn't yet really convinced.
I think that on this occasion the favourite TERRIES ROYALE is good value at 3/1 or higher with a win and a second on the last 2 runs and would have won both had it not veered off line last time. The handicapper hasn't bumped up that run too much so I think this is the one they all have to beat!
A couple really interest me at bigger e/w odds and in order of preference they are STOCKPYLE who has a win on Good to Soft off a mark of 75 and who will be suited by conditions more than most here at around 20/1 and back below a mark of 80 and REPERTOIRE who has top weight but who is a Course and Distance winner, a solid operator at this level and again one who handles Good to Soft off a competitive mark (RJ)