Thursday 1st August
By SP2A Analysis
GOODWOOD 1.50 - Handicap Class 2 - 3 year olds only - 13 run - Good to Firm
I concur with the main write up in the Racing Post that the pace angles in this race suggest that almost every horse likes to run prominently, of which most don't have conclusive from at the trip and which means it could mean absolute carnage as horses tire at the front but those in behind struggle to find a safe passage. A wide draw might not be a bad place in that context.
I've assessed every runner and would leave out both Midnight Gun (stamina concerns) and Palace Green (who is the one most likely not to break fast and therefore a complete hostage to fortune, like he was at Royal Ascot), and also Approval, who got the fractions wrong at Royal Ascot an may be a tough one to restrain if getting competition for the lead.
Looking at proven form at the trip, a pedigree that suggests this trip may be optimum and also a thought that off a kamikaze pace genuine stamina may come in to play, and taking draw in to consideration, I was left with a clear top 3 in my mind, I'll focus on the top 2 and leave the 3rd there as a reserve or for a small side punt for those that wish.
INTO BATTLE ticks all the boxes for me, probably a shade unlucky in running last time and I will be disappointed if this one isn't clearly in the first 3 home. ARAGON CASTLE has stayed on over an extended mile up the steep Hamilton hill, on pedigree this trip should be fine on a sharp track like this and it's one of those that has made all that really looks like it has the ability to get to the front and battle its way all the way to the line. My third rated and very closely rated with AC is WATCHA MATEY who has won at 9 furlongs staying on through the line, whose draw in Stall 10 may allow a nice slingshot down the centre of the track and who gets the capable assistance of Ryan Moore.
(TA)
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GALWAY 5.40 - Handicap - Flat - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 18 run - Good to Yielding.
I'll start by clearly highlighting the claims of the first reserve HIDDEN LAND, I've deliberately only selected 3 of the 18 declared runners to save a fourth slot for this one as if it runs , in my opinion it would be more likely to finish in the top 4 than any of the 18 on the declared list in front of it. The price I think reflects the fact it's a reserve and notits chances if running.
At the head of the market Best Law has a favourites chance but 4/1 is just too tight for me in any handicap here. Desert Friend looks a bit high in the handicap and although Son Of Hypnos was very impressive over Hurdles on Monday, he's not by any means thrown in off his Flat mark, although clearly in fine form. Lady Christa will be a real danger if getting the pace right, it didn't last time but Billy Lee is a great jockey booking, this was my 6th rated so misses an investment. I'd definitely have tipped Secret Rock had the ground been soft and if he'd had a run (added to TRACKER) and I could give sporting chances to the likes of Bright N Shine, Arch Enemy and Noble Crusade.
My clear top 3 rated though are VIDISHA who did nothing wrong when tipped and runner up at 10/1 last time and I think the hill will help this one and Johnny Murtagh will be expecting a place at least again, CAFE CON LECHE has decent form but it's the "notes in running" that are probably more compelling. Suggestions that the horse may have been ridden shall we say "kindly" on a few occasions and no doubt that won't be the case here!. Finally , QUESTION OF CLASS who is a bigger price but has some solid form at this sort of trip and who could give Jim Bolger a welcome winner.
(MG)
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Goodwood 4.10 - 2 year Old Nursery Handicap - 7 furlongs
A big and open field here and evidence that a single figure draw can be an advantage.
El Burhan is the one to beat but as we saw yesterday, past 2 year old form is no guarantee and the later developers start to hit their stride. Fred On Fire may be well handicapped on early runs and is feared as is Gold Medallist who I have added to my TRACKER and in fairness to our Northern Expert, I have to pass on his glowing write up about KING OF ANGELS "very visually impressive" at Doncaster and his NAP of the day.
My 1-2-3 all have the key attribute of proven stamina or pedigree laden stamina, indeed I think that whilst DEFENCE MISSILE has the best form to date including at Royal Ascot that both ORIGINAL OUTLAW and JET PACKER will both be best at a mile very soon, but both should be staying on and doing all their best work late off low single figure draws. (Caro)
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PLACEPOT
1.50 - 10 + 11
2.25 - 3 + 9
3.00 - 3+ 5
3.35 - 2 + 7
4.10 - 7 + 10
4.45 - 4 + 6
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