Thursday 19th September
By SP2A Analysis
Ayr 3.42 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 12 run - Good
There are four here at the top of the market who hold pretty obvious claims but who are just too similar for me to really confidently suggest a win bet and a bit too tight for any each way value. Amongst the other 8 runners there are a few with genuine chances of placing at least including the likes of Bystander who is better so far on the AW and Pol Roger who is admirally consistent including over Course and Distance but who is usually running in Class 4 races.
The one who I really do think is cracking each way value though is MARHABA THE CHAMP, a genuine Class 2 horse with wins at York off marks of 90 and 92 at this 10 furlong trip and also at 12 furlongs, so assured stamina there. The horse arrives fresh off a prep run after a wind operation and Stall 2 may be a distinct advantage with a decent level break as the left hand bend is quite a long curve in to the straight and you can gain valuable ground sitting on the rail as opposed to running 3-4 horses deep and out in to the centre of the track. (RJ)
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Ayr 4.48 - Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile - 14 run - Good
At the top of the market both Dain Ma Nut In and Never better look pretty strong but no value wn or each way. Mysteryofthesands and Keep Warm are both promising, consistent and very dangerous 3 year olds, my only real niggle with them is both have had a significant number of runs and may just be in need of a break by this stage of the campaign, both have potentially decent number of years ahead of them as solid store handicappers.
I was left with a short list of 3 and with 14 declared and a few enhanced place offers, I'll list them in preference order in case you want the 3rd option.
HORTZADOR is a totally exposed handicapper who wins and runs well when conditions suit, he won this race last year off a mark of 73 and at that point the Trainer referred to an ease in Class, he's may be more a Class 5 horse now than a Class 4 but can still pop up and off a similar mark is a very solid each way price. AYR POET just gets the nod for the second rating, a Course and Course and Distance winner for Jim Goldie (who runs a pair in this) and with wins off marks up to 66 and a decent 3 lbs claim off a mark of 60, no excuses not to run another big race here. At bigger odds is GOLDEN VALOUR who although normally best in Class 6 is one with Course and Distance form off marks around the mid 50's and off a mark of 56 and a nice low draw odds of 33-40/1 looks a bit too good to completely ignore (North)
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Pontefract 4.05 - Handicap Class 5 - 2 miles 1 furlong - 11 run - Good to Firm
We tipped up DEREHAM at the weekend when a non runner and we noted to look at this Entry and the better ground and overall form profile suggests a cracking each way bet at any double figure price. So we'll hope for a run for our money this time and some each way profit at least (North)