Thursday 16th August

Good Morning

A host of poor quality but mildly competitive races in parts today at Beverley; Chepstow; Salisbury; Yarmouth on Turf and Wolverhampton on the AW and a couple of Irish meetings. The overall quality would have seen a "no tipping day" at most points in the past 6-8 weeks, but the most desirable and more usual rain softened Going, that we are finally seeing, throws up a few nice soft ground form angles, and they re enough to entice us in, albeit with reduced stakes, to reflect that basement level quality.

The logic is as follows-:

CHEPSTOW 5.50 2 Barista @ 20/1 + 4 Royal Melody @ 14/1 (all bookies to 4th place) 1/4 point each way each horse. (see Tricast thoughts at bottom of this brief analysis)

I always feel Course form here on this heavily undulating track is a massive asset, throw in some form on rain softened Going; a nice handicap mark and a horse who has winning form in this specific month; and with "odds to 4th place" BARISTA looks cracking value to me. Best at 7 furlongs but more than competent at a mile; likes the Course and won in similar conditions at Salisbury last year off a mark of 59. The other main pick would be ROYAL MELODY who is another with good form from August last year; seemed to find a peak then and handicapper has been slow to relent. A win and runner up then on Good to Soft Turf and AW off marks of 50 and 55, turns up here off a mark of 48 and worth a small punt.

I was very interested in stablemates Tifi and Zaria and both have Course form and in the case of ZARIA form on soft and the other darker one that caught my eye was ONE LINER who has some form in these conditions in Ireland. For Tricast purposes I will do a full perm at 50p units total cost £3.00 on BARISTA / ROYAL MELODY / ZARIA and I will throw in a few added 25p random lines to perm in Tifi and One Liner as well. The sort of race where IF (and it's a big if) you can use Course and Going form and drop lucky, the returns will be significant.

YARMOUTH 6.55 3 Topmeup @ 8/1 + 5 Foxrush Take Time @ 14/1 - 1/4 point each way

A 17 furlong race and a lot of rain over in East Anglia and some more due this morning. Since they closed and levelled the track a few years back the Course bias has been less pronounced than before but still some merit in following it. Mime Dance; Percy Toplis and Topology were on the radar here , but Mime Dance's form in these conditions would see you looking back to 2013!; Percy Toplis is from the yard of the cuddly Christine Dunnett but looks to have done its winning by now and Topology will appreciate the rain, but was discarded for the 2  selections.

Gay Kelleway does well here and saddles TOPMEUP has run well at Brighton recently at this trip and 10 furlongs so no lack of stamina if it turns in to a slog; and good form in soft Going. Has won on heavy at Ffos Llas off a mark of 57; so given conditions 53 looks appealing here. FOXRUSH TAKE TIME is another at optimum trip and ideal Going. The Trainer has always been "streaky" long periods dormant then 3-4 cracking weeks. That has been exacerbated this season by some respiratory virus in the Yard but the horses are returning to form now and with the proven aptitude in conditions worth a small punt at 14/1. SKYBET go odds to 4th and another who is 3-4 lbs below proven winning mark.

BEVERLEY 3.30 7 Seamster @ 10/1 - 1/4 point each way