Thursday 15th August
By SP2A Analysis
SALISBURY 4.10 - Handicap Class 6 - 1 mile - 11 run - Good to Firm
My Ambition just took advantage of an obvious opportunity at Bath last time but a 4lbs penalty for that narrow win doesn't suggest he's by any means a shoe-in here. Persian Phoenix for the Johnson yard drops in trip and is a likely pace angle but has flattered to deceive a number of times. Classic Speed had an impressive AW win a while back and hasn't gone on from that win off a mark of 57, I think that's probably the sort of mark he needs to win off, so I have added to the TRACKER from today as he's still a bit high on a mark of 62.
My pair against the field are ROSCIOLI who has shown plenty of vigour on AW surfaces, and has some decent turf form on Good to Firm and this looks like his best turf opportunity in a fair while. HOPE RISING is still unexposed for the Charlie Hills yard, he has a solid 1 mile pedigree that suggests this trip should be ideal, he's been running at 10-12 furlongs but the drop back in trip in what could be a mile race run off a decent pace offers a decent chance of some improvement. (TA)
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BEVERLEY 4.55 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 1/2 furlong - 15 run - Good to Firm
The low draw bias here seems a lot less reliable than it used to be with a lot of races now won by horses coming with a drive from a more central position up the straight.
Captain Corelli and Havana Smoke head the market, have decent claims but neither jump off the page as secure win bet propositions. The Nigel Tinklet pair of Whatwouldyouknow and Strangerontheshore look to have solid place chances at least but have been well found by the market and a few others look better handicapped and better market value to me.
I narrowed my shortlist down to three and with one at a big price and 15 declared, here are the 1-2-3 in preference order.
MR HEINZ has runner up form here over Course and Distance on Good to Firm ground off this sort of basement mark and really has no excuses not to be placed with luck in running. PREMIERSHIP is a Distance winner, Good to Firm Going is fine and again a place at least looks very plausible.
The one at bigger odds who was 3rd rated is PANAMA CITY, this one is a Course winner and a Distance winner and has a CV with wins and places off significantly higher marks that the 45/46 level many of its opponents are becalmed around. Good to Firm turf is a big positive for this regular AW winner and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the first 4 home. (North)