Thursday 12th September
By SP2A Analysis
Doncaster 5.50 - Handicap - Class 3 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 14 run - Good
A fair number of unexposed 3 year olds in here, a few who have been put away for the summer no doubt to avoid bone rattling going and to strengthen up and a number of decent more experienced types.
Kildare Legend makes handicap debut off the back of a few low grade non handicap wins and could be anything quite frankly, Raja Raja has shown promise but in races where the form hasn't yet been franked as anything special, Lyric is an unexposed horse from the Gosden yard and both Raja Raja and Lyric are worth TRACKING and following as they should be winning races next season if not this.
Percy Shelley @ 11/1 will need every yard of this trip and should be finishing best but he is 3rd best rated and will need luck in running but a reserve pick if one of the two selections is a non runner. Of the remainder, a mention for Ludos Landing at a nice e/w price who is the likely pace angle, typical of the yard, but whose form so far suggests this trip is perhaps a furlong too far at the moment.
I'm most keen by some considerable margin on my ratings in XIOMARA who has shown considerable promise at 10 furlongs and produced an excellent run in France recently over an extended 11 furlongs. The Trainer is still a little under the radar and can certainly train handicap winners here and I think the UK handicap mark provides scope to win in the UK for the first time.
The other one to really catch the eye at a nice early price is SOOWAIH whose best form is this trip and who despite being more exposed than most here will enjoy conditions off a very competitive mark and should outrun odds of 20/1 or better from a low draw. (Northern)
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Newcastle 7.30 - Handicap - Class 6 - 14 run - Standard > Slow
Most of these are capable of winning a race at some point, the most consistent thing about them is their inconsistency, they will win "in turn" and it's very much a case of trying to predict when that turn is due as predicting the actual form is harder. As we've seen though this is a real test of stamina and needs a "will to win" that may be there one day at this level but not the next 5-6 racing days.
L'Argent is a solid favourite in the context of the race and the type we are looking for, 11lbs below it's last Course and Distance run and should be very competitive, as win savers in Class 6 on the AW go, it's probably one of the better options at your discretion.
Triple Force was placed here on Tuesday and Armoured is rank out of form but the type who could revive at any time, Mr Heinz WON for us here last week at 6/1 staying on well down the middle, a 5lbs penalty though takes him to a mark of 50 and historically he's WON off 45 and 46 and never off a penalised mark and building sequences in this grade is not the norm. Barleybrown is a very similar case in point, its optimum win mark is 50, we'll wait for that mark again as 55 just seems too high. Both Catrake Force and Sneaky Girl are likely to come on for the run tonight.
I've added MASTERPAINTER @ 22/1 to the Tracker, he's coming into a very interesting handicap mark range now and could click soo, he's my 3rd top rated player here and hopefully will not click tonight.
I'm most keen though on WHATWOULDYOUKNOW who has Course winning and place form off a mark of around 60, which is considerably better ceiling than most of these and who has been on Turf for the summer, a return here off a mark of 54 is eye-catching! STRUCK GOLD has been hampered by very slow starts, that is not something that has always been an affliction and you can look at it two ways, either there is an issue with the horse OR the jockey has shall we say not been overly encouraged to kick and race....I'm sceptical enough to think it's the latter and hopefully smart enough to believe that when this horse IS given a sporting chance he can and will deliver something, hopefully tonight. I believe the ability is there IF they don't keep giving 10-15 lengths away at the start! In other words, at some point they will want a discreet off course touch on this one! (AW)
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