Thursday 12th June
By SP2A Analysis
Newbury 3.15 - Handicap - Class 5 - 3 year olds - 1 mile - 17 run - Good
This straight mile takes some getting and whilst they tend to run in an arrowhead formation pace is important and a horse can come through from either side of the draw, in soft conditions HIGH might have an advantage but overall I think you can rely on genuinely Good ground with a bit of cut.
I much prefer a horse running regularly at a mile or tried over further on this Course than one stepping up in trip into uncharted stamina areas. It's a full on gallop from end to end and knowing when to make a move out of cover is key. It's no surprise that the better jockeys win here as it's very easy to get blindsided on one side and miss a break for home that gets first run on you.
The clear favourite and very much one FOR a win only bet is BOUBYAN, clearly has the form to win this, a 1 mile winner staying on, locally trained and has been gelded, so this one will be aimed at better handicaps than this, and with a fair smattering of nice mares in the race, he's not going to get over-excited!
I think that both Geo, who steps up in trip and Condotti, who reappears for season debut CAN be winning races, but probably at 7 furlongs and after a run respectively, so I have added to the TRACKER from after this race. The likes of Orchard, best on AW so fare and Mini Mac who has decent time ratings, could outrun their odds.
Aside from the favorite though I narrowly discarded Something Special as my 5th form rated as it drops back from 10 furlongs, clearly gets a mile but just inferior I think to my 4th rated, MANILLA THRILLER whose price is skinny for an each way bet but who is clearly a danger and a good reserve if one of the pair above it was a non runner.
In terms of each way investment, both CASTRO AURUM and MAHOGANY BAY look very solid to me. CASTRO AURUM has good verifiable form at a mile, tried 10 furlongs last time, drops back in trip and gets first time blinkers, a draw in S=tall 14 will see him coming down the Stands side of the echelon. In Stall 3 and on the side where there may be more early pace is MAHOGANY BAY and at better e/w odds than Manilla Thriller and also another who drops back to a mile, I really like the fact that this one likes to run prominently and if they get the fractions right could take a lot of pegging back, but may also give a very strong lead to BOUBYAN who is drawn in Stall 6. I visualise BOUBYAN leading home Mahogany Bay and Manilla Thriller on the far side and with CASTRO AURUM best of those on the Stands side (Caro)
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TRACKERS
Nottingham 4.00 First Encounter (solid e/w shout)
Leopardstown 6.50 Lady Linette (going concerns but ran eye catcher lto)