The Curragh 5.25
By SP2A Analysis
CURRAGH 5.25 Handicap - 1 mile 6 furlongs - The Curragh - 19 run - Good (watered) - significant rain possible
The market is framed around Bay Of Sanibel, a three time winner, all at Navan and that brings in the collateral form of a few others in the top half dozen of the betting. The danger with formlines like these is; that they can be misleading and it's wise not to throw all your eggs into that one basket. The Curragh and Navan are significantly different Tracks and at a price like 3/1, I'd be keen to take Bay of Sanibel on. Harsh for Joseph P O'Brien is hard to assess on Flat form but clearly a huge danger and Nostra Casa ties in very much with Bay Of Sanibel and isn't that well handicapped on that form line.
The Banger Doyle (I love the name) is a real danger IF he makes a level break but would need a full on end to end gallop, if he gets it he'll be finishing best of all but I fear it may be all about the start for this one and he just missed out on an investment. Gian for Elliott is a "lurker" and also not lightly dismissed but I am really keen on his other runner THE MEDIATOR. We have to take fitness on trust off a break of 221 days but its run OK fresh before and with collateral form with Bay Of Sanibel that suggests he is a good few pounds well in, I am confident he'll be right in the mix.
GRAPPA NONINO is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 67 last year, has had a JUmp prep race and runs off a still interesting Flat mark of 72 for Dermot Weld. VALLEYOFTHEEAGLES is third top rated and very consistent and deserves a win and with a potentially nice draw in Stall 18 could get the result its overall form deserves.
I would also point out at pair at big and very big prices that I personally have invested in...RAIN is a solid stayer, actually a few pounds out of the handicap but off a feather weight as a result and I'll be frankly very disappointed if this one isn't in the first 5-6 home and at silly odds, the veteran MT LEINSTER will possibly beat more home than it finishes behind based on old course form, Distance form and a tendency to pop up at big odds in to the places on infrequent Flat runs, not too far back off a mark of 103 so will be very interesting off a mark of 96 today at 66/1 or higher. (MG)