Sunday 7th July
By SP2A Analysis
SLIGO 4.50 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1 and 1/2 furlongs - 15 run - Good
This is a very sharp and undulating right handed Course that can suit prominent runners.
At the top of the market both I Am Spider Man and Flicker of Hope have obvious chances but with 10lbs and 8lb penalties respectively, I'm happy to take both on. The law of averages suggests it's far less usual for horses in Handicaps to win back to back, and easily overlooked!
Glendine Billy would have enhanced place claims at best, The Abbey is an 11 year old now and probably needs further than this but one who could stay on to an enhanced place and just missed my top 3 on analysis. Mustameet Secret ran on Friday but has one decent bit of course form over shorter if reappearing quickly. Benny The Duke is one I have added to the TRACKER, a very promising sequence in 2022 and then 18 months off with some tendon issues, there were just a few glimmers last time that fitness and ability remains and we'll see if he can progress to the level he might again win off.
My top two though are EARLY ARRIVAL who is already in the TRACKER and who won last time out, a Course run to place in 2023 off a mark of 98 suggests it can handle the track and off a mark of 100 with a 5lbs Claimer, looks a solid win hope. SPHAGNUM also has a very good Course record at 2 and a half miles, gets 3 miles and returns to Hurdling off a very nice mark. One at bigger odds who I must mention and worth a small extra punt if you want it is 4 OUTSIDE THE DOOR @ 10/1 who is also returning to hurdles off a nice mark and this trip is ideal. (Sean)
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LIMERICK 5.15 - Handicap - 2 miles 1 furlongs - Good to Firm - 14 run (Showers)
I did deliberate long and hard about tipping here, not because of lack of options, actually the opposite as there are at least half a dozen live contenders, but there is some real value here and worth a small stake and investment.
Curious Bride and Killemore Lad are worthy favourites and the most likely winners but not bomb proof. They will have to go up the steep hill on the back straight twice and early pace may be crucial and position important but it could be easy to overcook it as the finish is deceptively tough too.
Cerberus and Believe in Science are both in the TRACKER and not easily overlooked, The Tide Turns has been very disappointing for Elliott in some pretty deep Hurdle races but this ex Sir Mark Prescott horse has some interesting form on the Flat and I know that Sean thinks he'll run a big race at a very nice price.
I was left with a clear top two though but a couple of others who will just nag away at me and worth mentioning. Only 14 run so limited enhanced place options but both INFLUENTIAL LADY @ 14/1 a slow starter who may struggle for position and result but on a nice mark and likely doing its best work late and HONKETONK ANGEL a 2 miles AW winner off 48 and who had a decent sighter here last time off a mark of 54 that showed some promise, off 55 today and there would be far worse 33/1 shots. If either selection was a non runner, I'd definitely look at 14 HONKETONK ANGEL @ 50/1 as the reserve tip or big priced 3rd option to 4th place.
I'm very bullish though if the top 2 fail in the chances of FIRM BELIEF, a little unlucky here last time solid profile and the booking of Heffernan is a plus on a Course who brain power can be a big asset and BARRIER who is another slow starter but who really looks ready to win when all the chips fall right. On this occasion, Sceptred Isle, a 28/1 tip winner lst time he ran, looks to have been unfairly clobbered with an 11 lbs penalty, very excessive and knee jerk in my opinion.
(MG)
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AYR 5.20 Handicap - class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 11 run - Good
The favourite Braes of Doune looks a shoe in here, but at under 2/1 would not be for the faint hearted.
Many of the rest have to prove stamina, form or even how much ability is yet there.
Mr Boson could be dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead and Visitant may be suited to further, but at the bottom of the market the old veteran ROYAL COUNTESS who still enjoys racing and who regularly runs up to its basement mark could well bring home some place money at 25/1 or more.
I'm suggesting a small e/w on MR BOSON and ROYAL COUNTESS and will have both in a small T/C perm with the favourite
(North)
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