Sunday 4th May
By SP2A Analysis
NEWMARKET 2.55 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 10 run - Good
At the top of the market the in-form Kihavah carries a 4lbs penalty and Liam Swagger looks very solid, the probability is they finish 1-2 but something has to finish in 3rd place, so I will seek some e/w value. Oneforthegutter , whose best run last season was on The July Course here may just need this run and I will TRACK it forwards, Knightswood is another who has performed better on The July Course than this Rowley Mile, and also at Ripon.
The %age each way call therefore may be STORY HORSE who is sure to target the big Autumn races here over an extended 2 miles but who has run very prominently in the past to this sort of distance before fading in longer distance races and who has had a run and could be very well handicapped. (RJ)
NEWMARKET 3.35 - 1000 Guineas Class 1 - 1 mile - 10 run - Good (3 year old fillies)
Of course we have a history of finding big priced win or placed horses in the race, the obvious highlight Billesdon Bess advised at 100/1 and returned an SP of 66/1 in 2018. This race can regularly throw up surprises.
At the top of the market both Desert Flower, a 4 time winner including over Course and Distance and Lake Victoria, a Frankel sired horse, look very solid. In many ways the best each way value if you consider 6/1 to be value is another Frankel sired horse in RED LETTER whose form ties in closely enough with Lake Victoria to suggest she could capitalise if that one had an off day.
Duty First was impressive in the Fred Darling but visual evidence and pedigree suggests stamina is questionable, especially if the front two in the market decide to exploit proven form at the trip by setting a decent pace. Chantilly Lace has just one AW run but Raif Beckett is a past master at getting a filly ready off such a limited CV, whilst Hey Boo ran well too in the Fred Darling at Newbury.
In addition to RED LETTER though I'm going to suggest a small flutter e/w on REMAAT at 50-66/1. This one ran well as a 2 year old but wasn't seen after June. She reappeared in the Nell Gwynn here (interesting in itself that the Lambourn based Yard who literally overlook Newbury came here rather than the Fred Darling at Newbury) and she ran an eye-catching and staying on 3rd that day. There is 10 furlong stamina in her dam and grand sire pedigree and I fancy a small flutter on her. One final interesting point. Her RPR (Racing Post Rating of 113 suggests she is a stone inferior to the top pair BUT an RPR of 113 was exactly the same that the winners of this race in 2019; 2021 and last year had achieved prior to the big day!. (Carolyn)
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SALISBURY 5.00 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 10 run - Good to Firm
Very little current and turf form to go on here but FULLFORWARD deserves a bash at a trip of 14 furlongs having run consistently, in the context of this level, in the past on a number of occasions over 12 furlongs. (RJ)