Sunday 29th September
By SP2A Analysis
The Curragh 4.25 - Irish Cesarewitch - Handicap - 2 miles 1 furlong - Good to Yielding (some heavy rain possible)
Let's look first at those at the top end of the market that both of the lads discarded independently and the reasons why.
Both see NURBURGRING @5/1 as a possible "win saver bet" but both ask the question "will he stay" on rain softened ground on the Flat with some genuine pace angles to make it probably a true run as opposed to tactical affair?
Dawn Rising has a few stamina concerns too in the ground and whilst Magellan Strait was a shock 150/1 winner of this last year he did have a high draw which allowed this often nervous horse who can get spooked to take some cover and time to get himself organised, Sean in particular thinks Stall 9 is a bit of a nightmare place for him to be berthed. Comfort Zone is a decent each way prospect but more rain would be a concern. Enniskerry has disappointed recently but does have some strong collateral form and wasn't lightly discounted. The Euphrates is a confirmed front runner for AP and Ryan Moore and is one who could take some catching but conditions may not suit those tactics.
Of the UK contingent Divine Comedy will welcome the rain but a mark of 102 based on UK form looks very tough, Zoffee will run it's usual brave race at a price but these wide open expanses may not suit the Chester expert and Tashkan may be the best of the UK hopes, 3rd in the British version last year and off the same mark and a low weight and one both Irish experts expect to be in the first 8-10 home here (worth a small e.w IF you fancy cheering a British based runner).
Of those at big odds (though nothing is close to 150/1 this time) , Dartan @ 66/1 led them to almost the 2 mile pole in the 2023 race and could again make a bold bid, Enfranchise @ 33/1 could stay on at a decent price and both Taipan and A Piece of Heaven look likely to run top 10 finishes on their best form.
The top 2 and back up for each of the guts are as follows-:
MICHAEL-:
FALCON EIGHT was a runner up in this race last year in off a mark of 103 in very similar conditions, he's been disappointing of late but that simply mirrors his 2023 preparation, he's very interesting off a pound higher and this is a race where I base analysis purely on known form and let the Draw take care of itself.
COUNTESS OF TYRONE is very lightly raced in contrast but has been laid out for this race in my opinion for quite a long time. WE don't really know where the ceiling is for this one but with signs it can handle the Soft Going, I'm happy to have a speculative punt.
(MY MATE MOZZIE would be my 3rd rated, another who ran with great credit in the 2023 renewal just fading close home and with a stronger pilot booked this time I'll be very disappointed if this one doesn't strongly challenge)
SEAN -:
JESSE EVANS is my top rated and ran well in this with a top 5 finish last season, out of an almost identical stall drawn in No 23 and just 3lbs higher surely this has been a plan all season and a really big run is anticipated,
SPASIBA has been a bit overlooked despite being from the Willie Mullins yard, could come in for some late support later in the afternoon and worth taking a price on I think, a 3rd place finish at Galway off a pound lower than today's mark of 88 suggested that these conditions and trip could be ideal
(PRAIRIE DANCER is 33/1 or higher in the market and was the one at a bigger price that really caught my eye. A Naas winner on Soft Going suggests very strong stamina and although he runs off 10lbs higher here, the more rain the better and he's still well handicapped in the specific conditions, which may well blunt some of the speed of the more fancied runners and make it a true stamina test.)
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