Sunday 26th January
By SP2A Analysis
NAAS 1.00 - Novice Handicap Chase - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 12 run - Soft > Heavy
The top 3 in the market are all clustered between 5/2 and 4/1 in price and although worth all have small question marks of some kind. Likewise Kiltealy Park and Ballybrack Wood. Buachaillbocht was very impressive over hurdles last winter winning 3 times and upping a mrk from 97 to 117 in the process, does not look like a natural Chaser and I'm a bit surprised Ted Walsh is persevering but at some point this one may switch back to Hurdles and for that reason he remains in my Tracker. I would not be surprised too to see Petit KIng @ 33/1, a very impressive heavy ground Hurdles winner last season at Punchestown revert back to Hurdles and there are far worse 33/1 pokes running today than this one.
I'm very keen though on the chances of Hurdle Course specialist AMERICAN MONEY being the biggest danger to the top 4-5 in the market here at a nice each way price and if the 20/1 plus remains for Elliots RAINBOW TRAIL who was just too bad to be true last time when the Yards horses may just have had their bi-annual booster injections, he may be e/w value too (MG)
-----
FONTWELL 2.50 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 5 and 1/2 furlongs - 9 run - Soft
The top pair in the market are solid but little win value and third in the market Proper Twelve would not want it to get too soft. Fame And Fun should not be discounted off top weight but is another who won't appreciate any more rain.
SIR ROCK won this race last year off a mark of 96 on soft ground and won it's 4th and 5th runs of the season, it's had 3 (admittedly poor) runs this season and come back here back down to a mark of 96 on soft ground, so you can see why I think a small each way bet is the way to go today. (Robin)
----
SEDGEFIELD 3.40 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 3 miles 2 and 1/2 miles - Soft - 11 run
The top 3 in the market, Old Page on a hat trick, Felton Bellevue a very consister if lower grade Chaser and Monaghan Boy a Course and Distance winner last year are all worthy of their prices and chances but none are bombproof in what could be really testing conditions. Catch Catchfire lacks experience and a slog may not suit nor be desired, Zwicky and Bashford are both serious dangers but neither would ideally want the Going too soft.
Eveque is probably the most logical each way put and if there were enhanced places this one would be 3rd rated, Course and Distance winner at this meeting last year off a similar mark, what has just put me off however is the fact that it was having its 5th run of the season this time last year and has only had the one run this. I just feel it could still need a run or two and that was the only factor that put me off an investment.
That leaves me with a couple at BIG prices with chances I believe. C'EST QUELQU'UN has done very little since coming to the UK from Ireland but first signs of running up to Irish form last time, a switch from the big barns of the Elliott yard to a small yard who can win races with nice horses will have taken time to acclimatise but at 28-33/1 well worth a small investment I think and one to follow. HENRY BROWN has had his best runs at the Course, off marks of 80-82 he's been competitive in soft Going and off 79 here I am confident that 20-25/1 is over-priced. (Northern)