Sunday 22nd September
By SP2A Analysis
Listowel 3.30 Maiden Hurdle - 2 miles 6 furlongs - 18 run - Good
As regulars will know this type of race has an immediate (this race) but more importantly a medium and long term (Tracker and potential) aim.
This race is a perfect example and we'll look at the 3 types of horse and the f=different aims for them today.
We look with a subjective rather than prescriptive eye at these races, so less focussed on TIPS and more focused on long term opportunity and the hope we can net a monster at 100/1 or similar to fill one of the 3 places on offer.
The top pair in the market are miles clear, you'll need a fall or some sort of problem to have any scenario other than a 1-2 for Jasko Des Dames for De Bromhead and UNCLE PAT for Mullins and I have to say that the 5/2 for UNCLE PAT in a match race actually looks like a very decent side bet if you can get the price!
We then have 5 horses next up in the betting who have a nice e/w place price and chance of finishing 3rd but about whom I have reservations even if i take the top pair out of the equation.
Ballysax Hank is an NHFlat horse with no supporting evidence re the stamina required here, Fast Felix is the most experienced in this type of race and has solid form but it's another who has to go best part of 1/2 a mile further than normal. Will Wilde is another with stamina concerns and race fitness off a 260 days break. Riyami is first reserve and has some decent Flat form but again stamina concerns and Jeu De Pic has form figures of 3-2-4-5 up to this trip but has yet to prove it gets the trip.
I'm therefore perfectly happy to swerve what may look like obvious e/w pokes to look for something with proven stamina from the P2P fields.
Tell Me Again was 3rd in a 3 mile Maiden under rules last time but has assured proof of stamina with that run. Well Del and Deuce Bigalow have decent 3 mile P2P form but lack a run and both may need the run and softer Going but I will be TRACKING forwards.
Of more interest are COOLE COTTAGE who has shown promise in 3 mile P2Ps and a 3 mile 1 furlong Maiden Hurdle and NEVER PRESENT who led to 2 fences out in a 3 mile P2P before falling heavily, has had 4 runs since getting round inadequate 2 mile trips but about whom 150/1 is VERY appealing!
I'm therefore going to have a small win bet on UNCLE PAT, a small e/w on COOLE COTTAGE and a quid each way on NEVER PRESENT...
Hopefully we will get some fun from these P2P horses this winter and definitely future winters.
(Sean)