Sunday 1st September
By SP2A Analysis
Worcester 2.10 - Handicap - 2 miles 7 furlongs - Class 5 - 13 run - Good (some rain about)
This is a competitive race, far more so that the later Hurdle race at 4.40 and a couple of earlier Divisions also over Hurdles that look more market dominated.
We do have strong top of the market options here with Ginger Pointe and Get With It but they aren't great win value in my opinion. We Got Your Back , The King of May and Grand Du Nord (Hughes rides for Hammond and that's always one to note), aren't lightly discounted but 4 of the 13 really caught my eye.
At bigger Odds, Pawpaw looks very overpriced when you look at the best run for current connections which was over Course and Distance off 88 when a distant 3rd and off a mark of 84 with a 3 lbs Claimer, he could conceivably make the top 4. The other one who was my 3rd best rated so might be worth a small shrapnel punt is HELIOS ALLEN, this one runs prominently and may get an advantage down the home straight that makes it hard to peg back to enable it to run a place, it's slowly coming down the handicap and could well be on an optimum mark today.
My top pair though are MACAVITY who has been very consistent of late and who deserves a win and DINDIN who has certaily become a lot more consistent with age and who also looks to have solid claims here for the pipe yard. (DT)
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Tipperary 5.30 - Handicap - 1 mile 4 and 1/2 furlongs - Good - 17 run
A very competitive field but three really stand out for me and a couple of them at very big prices.
At the top end of the betting we have Unterberg who is up 3 furlongs in trip and although it has a Distance win on the AW , I think that makes it vulnerable here. Lady Christa has won off 56 and placed off 66, so I don't think a mark of 68 makes this an easy assignment. Stepdance is one I will TRACK forwards on only it's second run back after a year out, that one is trained by Henry De Bromhead, which makes the booking for Rachel Blackmore to ride Black Soul, who has Course form very interesting. This one was my 4th rated so will be our reserve IF we pick a subsequent non runner.
The likes of Hopkins, Desert Friend (probably needs more of a stamina test) , Rhythm And Tyne (best is on AW) ; Tudor Manor (handicap mark?) and Sir Allen (needs soft so added to TRACKER) would all have chances on their best form but I'm not sure conditions suit any of them here for a variety of reasons.
My top 3 rated in preference order are NO TROUBLE whose promising runs over 12 and 13 furlongs in July look sure to play to the conditions here and whose subsequent runs on firmer going can be forgiven. I think early 33/1 is just a daft price and I'll be very disappointed if this one isn't in the first 4 hoisme. BOLD APPROACH is a bit more obvious but still a nice price and again a return to genuinely Good ground will be a boost as will be a declining mark. My 3rd top rated is actually 100/1 in some early pricing but don't let that put you off KINGS PRINCE who was runner up in this race last year off 61, runs off 53 here and clearly likes the Course and Distance. They continually mix up the trips for this one and you do always just wonder whether that is a plan to go under the radar or that they just can't make their minds up, I'm happy to take pot luck on this one at the price!
(Sean)