Sunday 16th June

Doncaster 4.10 Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile - 16 run - Good (light showers yesterday and a few today)

 

A typically competitive Donaster handicap but there is one near the top of the market and one deep down the market that I have most confidence in following deep analysis of the known form.

 

I'm not sure Great Max is of real value at the top of the market as it is hard to know what its best trip actually is. Society Lion won at 7 furlongs last time, gets a 5lbs penalty and I suspect a mile here might just stretch stamina to the limit. Rogue Sea on the other hand may be best at 10 furlongs and could be staying on best at the close. I'll TRACK that one and also Speriamo from today, I just feel Speriamo needs genuine top of the ground and it just may be a bit too much on the soft side today. I see this one as my 3rd best rated though. Utilis at a big price for the in form Brian Ellison yard may appeal to these who like a few bob on a biggie form an in form yard as it's dropped to a very nice mark.

 

My top 2 clear rated though are ABRUZZO MIA who returned to turf last time when runner up off this mark and who is very well handicapped on a lot of AW form and the going should be no excuse. At bigger Odds, I'd hope that STRONGBOWE can at least match the run of Quest For Fun yesterday and hopefully go one better. STRONGBOWE has its third run of the season and the Yards horses are needing a couple of runs it seems, it's below last win mark of 76 and regularly places off this sort of mark today of 73. I'll be very disappointed if its not in the money today to enhanced places.

 

Thirsk 6.15 - Handicap Class 4 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 15 run - Good to Soft

 

An equally competitive race on Going likely to be Good to Soft but not too much softer than that.

 

At the top end of the competitive market the likes of Letsbefrank who is up in trip and grade and penalised, Banderas who is lightly raced and unexposed and Dark MoonRising a shock winner last week at Hamilton, which is a very different track to Thirsk, don;t really entice me in on form nor market value. Geremia is a real danger but always a hostage to fortune with slow starts, a high draw may not be a negative if they just drop in, but they tend to go 2 by 2 in formation here for a long way and it could turn in with literally the whole field in front of it so will need all the luck in running. The slow starts are the only negative and I fear it a lot! At big odds we have a Coure specialist in Fleur De Mer but i think that one needs further.

 

Two horses are IN the TRACKER already and they are Kitsune Power and Hope You cAN rUN. I'm sure Kitsune Power will be winning races soon, fingers crossed not today though as I rated 4 higher. The niggle for me with Kitsune Power is the step up in trip, at 12 or 13 furlongs it would be a strong tip, but as yet we don't know if it'll get this trip. Hope You Can Run is a solid chance  but again I have aniggle and that is I just feel top of the ground Good or Good to Firm suits bests, the margins are very tight in this sort of handicap, so I hope and expect the 2 TRACKER horses to be winning soon, but not quite today!

 

My clear top 2 rated here are BILLY NO MATES who is always very dangerous off marks in the mid 70's between 74 and 76, loves the trip and likes cut and I'm hoping a mark of 77 is in range with everything else stacking up perfectly. RATHGAR is a big danger and solid on all form lines and conditions and looks an each way banker , if there is one, to me here. With 15 runners and enhanced places, my 3rd rated was the veteran DARK JEDI a Course and Distance winner recently on Good to soft off a mark of 74, a veteran now but very dangerous still off a mark of 78 with any more rain a distinct plus.