Sunday 13th October
By SP2A Analysis
Naas 4.00 Handicap (Flat) - 2 miles - 20 run - Yielding (late afternoon rain)
A big field but a fair few out of the handicap and a classic mix of proof and potential in terms of the known form and not unusually, the markets are currently sided with big Yard potential. I will take a contrarian view here, proven form in Autumn ground on one of the very best and toughest stamina courses anywhere.
For that reason I fear but discount Seddon; Toll Stone and Nostra Casa at the top end of the market, clearly dangerous but all have questions to answer in the conditions on the day. I have stamina concerns about Portland and Chemistry, handicap mark queries about Mr Escobar and just ruled out the Cromwell pair Vera Verto and Pinot Gris in my final analysis, whilst accepting those names could dominate the race, I'll look elsewhere today.
My top 4 on analysis and proven form are COMFORT ZONE who is still only 5 years old, ticks all the right boxes and a very appealing handicap mark, FALCON EIGHT whose mark jumps off the page despite top weight when you consider a 10lbs Claimer is in the saddle at around 20/1 great value, LORD ERSKINE a veteran dual code horse very capable of being heavily involved here in the conditions also well handicapped at a big price and last years Course and Distance all the way winner PRAIRIE DANCER who may have 8lbs more but whose run style (very similar to Magellan Strait yesterday) should take him a long way in to the race and again pose the question "catch me if you can"?.
There is a 5th one at huge odds just to flag up amongst those out of the handicap and a small few quid e/w at 50/1 on RICH BELIEF a Distance winner on soft and just 1 lb wrong (has to carry 1lb more than official rating as just below the minimum weight) might bring a lot of fun! (MG)
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Ffos Llas 4.30 Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 14 run - Soft
Not too many in here have had a run and looking back at past seasons the top end of the market with this likes of I'm On My Way, Blackacre and Abbeyhill, all suggests those will be better for the run and may just need it. All 3 should be paying their way soon.
Lady Harriet is a live danger with fitness assured but has had more bad runs than good and whilst that sums up a lot of Bowen horses, only a small e/w could be advised in the horses current form.
So I'm going to rely on just the one horse here and that is JETAWAY TO GETAWAY an Irish raider and a bit of an eye opener that Jordan Gainford comes here to ride and this one has both the benefit of a run already, a pipe-opener over a clearly unsuitable 2 miles but also some impressive looking Irish 3 mile P2P form that allays any stamina concerns. (RJ)
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TRACKERS-:
Goodwood 1.50 Gooloogong (Jockey)
Cork 4.55 Hand Over Fist