Sunday 12th May
By SP2A Analysis
Killarney 4.30 Killarney National Handicap Chase - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 15 run - Good
This race should beat some rather wet stuff that's coming in for the week so I've made assessment on Good ground and Good ground horses.
De Bromhead runs Potters Party; a nice 7 year old who is well worth TRACKING as is True Faith who has been off for 18 months and who logically will need the run. Birchdale at the top end of the market may have been bottomed out by a recent Banks run at Punchestown. Elliott runs three, I just cannot conclusively make my mind up about Jumping Jack who may be tapped for toe here over a shorter trip than his Ulster National win so he just misses an investment, Cavalry Master has a Course win a few years back, beating Hewick no less in the process but of the three i actually prefer THE ABBEY whose prominent running style and feather weight may be ideally suited to this sharp track, especially in Good ground conditions.
Stealthy Tom is a Course specialist who carries a lot of weight and at bigger odds the only one to really catch the eye if any wanted a small flutter is Macgiloney who is solid and consistent and the type to nick an enhanced place.
My top two rated though above THE ABBEY are MIDNIGHT OUR FRED who has become a bit of a Cheltenham expert but who brings what looks to me to be substantially the best overall form as a result amd BRIDESWELL LAD who has won at 3 mile, is significantly better on Good ground than ground with cut and who looks to have solid each way claims. If you want the third option to enhance places then is THE ABBEY. (MG)
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Ludlow 5.15 Novices Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 14 run - Good
A fair few of these are upped quite markedly in trip and have no 3 miles P2P form to fall back on.
So we'll bypass I Look How I Look ; Call Me Arthur and Saint Bibiana at the top of the market for that reason. They may well prove us wrong but we're happy to take the chance at the prices. Emma Hamilton has got mixed form evidence and although feared is another we can't totally trust. Lions Vigil is very lightly raced so maybe a bit fragile but has shown glimpses of form. League Clash is one we're adding to the TRACKER as it has got some 3 mile P2P form from a P2P Maiden race but may be a longer term project.
Three caught the eye in the final countdown and of those we'll leave out Fantomas @ 12/1 who was all out to beat JOHN'S DREAM a while back and with a penalty and the run style suggesting JOHNS DREAM is handicapped to go one better we'll make MILANESE ROSE the other selection. This one comes off a break of 6 months but has run well before, conditions are ideal and it has proven stamina for this trip a number of times and the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies is another positive. (Daily)
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