Sunday 11th August
By SP2A Analysis
RIPON 2.10 Apprentice Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile - 12 run - Good
A competitive little race where I think the market leaders Pinball Wizard (trip on the short side), Makalu + Bowood (penalties for good wins and higher marks) may be vulnerable. Style Of life likes to race prominently and may nick this from the front if some of the jockey's aren't switched on so is a genuine danger. Jumeirah Vision knows how to win races but looks a little high in the handicap right now and at bigger prices I didn't totally discount Rievaulx River, who is a Course and Distance winner returning to some sort of form and he was actually 3rd rated (so treat as a reserve).
I think Tim Easterby has excellent chances here though with MOUNT KING for whom a drop in trip looks a smart move off a nice mark and LITTLE TED who is also very well handicapped and a Course winner, and a Distance winner elsewhere. I rate them in that order although the Bookies seem to prefer Little Ted (North).
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LEICESTER 3.30 Handicap - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 12 run Good to Firm
The top 3 also look solid if not compelling in this race, Bobacious isn't a shoe in at this trip up the hill with a penalty, Laser Focus also has trip and handicap mark queries for me and Dubawi Time doesn't represent any sort of win value and looks too short.
Papagel will be a big danger if staying but the key question is "if"; I am much more confident about the proven stamina of a few of these and just left out Queensland Boy (3rd rated so reserve who drops in trip) in preference of LIVINTHELIFE a solid and improving 3 year old who frankly deserves a win for a series of nice runs and TROJAN TRUTH at a bigger price a Course and Distance winner off 57 on Good to Firm on penultimate run, up to a mark of 62 but Luke Morris will be pushing and carrying this one right to and through the line up the stiff closing climb and I'll be disappointed if both of these are firmly in the final 1-2-3. (The Advisor)
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DOWNPATRICK 4.48 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 6 furlongs - Good - 15 run
Let's start with the Reserve - Georgia Celena who ran on Friday but who would have a cracking chance of a first 4 finish here if reappearing after 2 decent Course and Distance efforts, well worth a small poke "with a run"
At the top of the market Stumblin In is a worthy favourite but not a "win" bet in terms of value. Paddy Elvis is sold but again 5/1 offers no real e/w scope and I think there are better options at better odds. A Mere Bagatelle will be a danger but may be better over fences these days. At bigger Odds I narrowly discounted Dunleer Phoenix, who I will TRACK off a 10 month break and my 3rd rated overall was ROSCOMROE @ 16/1 and those who might want to have a bash at enhanced places to 4th or 5th may like a small stake e/w on this one for who this intermediate trip may see some significant improvement.
My clear top 2 rated though are MEADOW SOPRANO a Course and Distance 3rd last time at 33/1 and one who could now be about to realise some past promise and COCOPIUM the top weight who drops in trip and who will I think find this race a lot less deeper in terms of quality than some recent ones and the drop in trip also a big positive.
(MG)