Saturday 7th September
By SP2A Analysis
Haydock 2.25 - Handicap Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - Good to Soft - 15 run
I whittled through these and arrived at a short list of 3 of which Rajinsky was the 3rd rated so I will nominate him as a reserve. He could be a real danger here off this mark on favoured ground with some cut despite the 405 day break.
My top 2 rated though at backable e/w prices are the in-form EPIC POET who was a fast finishing eye-catcher in the Ebor after meeting plenty of problems in running and ONEFORTHEGUTTER who we tipped at 25/1 and who ran a bliner in the same race staying on doggedly at 25/1 that day. (North)
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Haydock 3.35 - Class 1 - 6 furlongs - 16 run - Good to Soft
A non handicap but some enhanced places on offer.
I don't think it's anything like the best renewal of this race and the likes of Flora Of Bermuda , a very progressive 3 year old filly and clear 3rd rated, Moss Tucker in interesting Irish raider and Shouldhavebeenaring who was a 50/1 runner up in this race last year were very strongly considered. Swingalong deserves a win but may not want too much cut in the ground and Elite Status and Inisherin are worthy of favouritism but look vulnerable at the declared prices.
I think that the best of the 3 year olds and the one with the most scope to improve is JASOUR, either running to freely or the opposite and being switched off before breaking slowly have tended to hide the real potential of this one and I just think that on the day it all clicks, we could see some significant improvement.
It's the type of race where pace is as important as the draw (unless it gets extremely soft) and the more exposed but very capable ART POWER who has faded the last twice over 7 furlongs will both love the return to 6 furlongs and the cut in the ground and one I think ideally drawn to get a lovely tow in to the race and definitely overpriced (TA)
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Ascot 2.10 Handicap - Class 2- 3 year olds only - 11 run - 1 mile 4 furlongs - Soft
French Duke won at Glorious Goodwood but has no form on soft ground, Goodwood Odyssey won a small 6 winner race at a different Goodwood meeting but is upped 5lbs,the rest include a number of horses whose relative under-performance has seen them gelded, so it is possible some could improve for the snip!
However, with The Reverend no real each way value and 2nd rated, I will stick with a confident each way view that PONIROS who has run prominently to and through the line at 10 furlongs on a couple of occasions and who has run just a little too freely at 12 furlongs, may be the one best suited to the chop and this now gelded 3 year old can step up and onwards to better things. (RJ)
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Thirsk 2.40 Nursery Handicap - 2 year olds - Class 5 - 1 mile = Good - 12 run
I looked for a long time at Cymbidum and he was eventually a marginal 3rd best rated and probably the best value near the top of the market. Coverbridge is feared on a win at just over 7 furlongs on the AW at Newcastle.
There will always be "Improvers" in these races and I take pedigrees and connections very much as important factors and in this case both lead me to a 1-2 at nice odds.
ITSALLABOUTUS has stamina on the dams side, has suggested more than once this trip will be ideal and when you consider the potential ammunition the Yard has for races like this, being the only Entry is a tip in itself. BEBSIDE just got the second rated pick, a clear 1 mile pedigree a decent enough Nursery debut that suggests the mark is competitive and one who looks very overpriced on that data (Carolyn)
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Navan 5.10 - Handicap - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 21 Run - Good
A track that needs proven stamina and reserves of it and despite a field of 21 my top 3 rated did jump off the page somewhat.
SLIEVE BEARNAGH is in good form over hurdles and has an excellent Flat mark to possibly exploit here, COMFORT LINE lurks on a very nice mark and this Course will surely suit and the same applies to FORLIO who is solid and consistent and deserves a win.
(MG)