Saturday 7th June
By SP2A Analysis
EPSOM DERBY - 3.30
With certainly soft Going and possibly more attritional we have to look at proven stamina , in pedigrees and on Course, an ability, proven or in pedigree to handle conditions, and the very real possibility of an absolute deluge and a possible fiasco of a race with some big priced outcomes. YOU ONLY GET ONE CHANCE at this race remember so very likely everything WILL run but possibly some "may be saved" and not given too hard a ride with eyes on bigger 3 year old races later in the season.
I think that Damysus for the Gosdens is one ideally suited by conditions, Lambourn clearly stays and we can't rule out Ballydoyle runners at any price, Lazy Griff is an out and out stayer, a St Leger type possibly, will need a deluge but one to be very very aware of if it comes, Nightime Dancer will benefit from rain, Pride Of Arras has a pedigree stacked with Course form, Stanhope Gardens is a dark horse who ticks many boxes and Tornado Alert, may be aptly named and a slow maturing type who must be TRACKED forwards.
My actual punting thoughts - I think that a small each way bet on 15 STANHOPE GARDENS @ 20/1 / 2 DAMYSUS @ 16/1 and if it's heavy 6 LAZY GRIFF @ 50/1- should give you a sporting run for your money. (Carolyn) (almost ALL to 4th place)
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EPSOM
2.45 - The Dash draw has been very inconclusive in recent years but in rain the logic that the best of the ground is high draw against the rail as water runs down the camber is an irrefutable fact. VINTAGE CLARETS is the form pick but drawn 2 and will not mind rain at all but equally interesting drawn higher are DESERT COP and previous winner TEES SPIRIT both of who will handle soft Going (The Advisor)
4.15 - if the forecast is correct the going could be pretty desperate by this time. MILLER SPIRIT is an undoubted mudlark who would have no excuses , SMALL FRY a stable mate at shorter odds also has form in the conditions and DREAM HARDER is in good form, gets the trip and no weather concerns either (RJ)
WORCESTER
5.25 - SHANTOU EXPRESS falls to a mark it simply has no excuses off and enough form in Good to Soft and Soft not to have any concerns. The one with Heavy ground winning form is GENTLEMAN JAQUES and Harry Cobden is likely to ride him to finish and the price early is very appealing (Robin T)
HEXHAM
4.40 - This may be the least rain affected Course in the mainland, time will tell. GRAND VOYAGE who drops in trip and handles the ground is a very confident selection and TOOMBRIDGE gets conditions it likes and should be nearing peak fitness (Robin T)
NAVAN
5.05 - A very competitive field and enhanced places to 6th place, hard to leave out the likes of Desert Friend, but rain would be a negative, Nans View , Morse and Razdan are very big dangers who just missed an investment as is Ragmans Corner.
My top 3 rated are DISCO BOY who is running well, solid profile and no excuses, GRANITE BAY who has exactly the same sort of profile and chances and MAKE GOOD a stout and solid stayer, ideally suited to the Course and who should now be fully tuned up. The 4th rated to multiple places would be Palamon. (Sean)
PUNCHESTOWN
2.20 - There are 19 runners here but necessary confidence firmly with just the pair of them and I will be very disappointed if MEEHALL and TULLYHOGUE FORT who both should now really be race fit tight and ready don't place in the first 4 at least here. (MG)
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TRACKERS
Worcester 1.50 Gorcombe Moonshine - good e/w chance
Epsom 2.45 Jer Blatt - very strong form chance but rain / draw issues
Navan 5.05 Morse - see race tip analysis - solid e/w poke
Lingfield 8.10 Amatheus - one to follow but may be not today