Saturday 5th July
By SP2A Analysis
Sandown 2.25 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 13 run - Good to Firm
Around half of the 13 runner field were seriously considered here with Two Tempting a Course and Distance winner possibly a big high in the weights and needing Good as opposed to Good to Firm Going, Arisaig, who is better around the bend it gets here than a straight track but who also looks a bit high in the weights right now and definitely on my radar for Glorious Goodwood, Tribal Chief who is in good nick but in a race may be slightly too deep here and Classic Encounter, another in form who is in deeper waters than usual.
That left me with a short list of 3 and my 3rd rated is an unexposed and possibly progressive 3 year old in 12 Principality @ 16/1, play if you want any enhanced odds to 4th place, or as a reserve pick if a non-runner and definitely TRACK this likeable horse.
My idea of the 1-2 here are CLASSIC (note CLASSIC not Classic Encounter), very well handicapped on 2024 form and a Course and Distance winner for Richard Hannon and MIRSKY who is back to his optimum trip here, very well handicapped and would be a timely winner for the under pressure Oisin Murphy who has again got himself in to a spot of bother when not riding a horse! (RJ)
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Haydock 3.15 - Old Newton Cup Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 16 run - Good
Over half of this field would normally ply their trade in Class 4 or 5 races and whilst the likes of Humble Spark, Great Bedwyn, Box To Box and My Dream World @ 10/1 (my 4th rated) would hold VERY strong claims in their right grade, there are around half a dozen horses who IF they run to proven form in this Class would frankly look better options.
I would be worried about stamina in a truly run race for some at fancy prices based on very good 10 furlong form and for that reason I've overlooked, City Of Delight, whose pedigree is basically up to 10 furlongs, Plage de Havre, very similar 10 furlong profile, Minstrel Knight who may have been a tip but for a long absence and who would normally be better for a seasonal debut and Sir Lowry's Pass another whose proven stamina I would be dubious about.
That left me with a couple who are proven at the trip and comfortable in the Grade albeit exposed form but I will be disappointed if STRESSFREE a Course and Distance winner whose mark is "in range" and CHILLINGHAM who is a Distance winner, usually solid in this grade and in decent form right now; are not very competitive here. My 3rd rated in a 16 runner race is PADDY THE SQUIRE who has been in good form over 10 furlongs, steps back up to 12 furlongs for the first time in almost 2 years but whose last run at the trip saw him a fast closing runner up at Hamilton Park up their steep hill. I quantify that as provable 12 furlong form and hopefully he won't disprove that here but will prove it in decent style! (The Advisor)
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Haydock 3.50 - Handicap - Class 4 - 6 furlongs - 15 run - Good
A bit of rain possibly about and I narrowed down to 4 horses, 2 drawn low and 2 drawn high , hopefully nothing rattles home down the middle!
I left the likes of Juan Les Pins, a regular talking horse who usually finds ways NOT to win, Sir Garfield, who is favourite but I think not a value "win bet" at 4/1 nor each way value in this field and Tiriac, a TRACKER horse who I lingered on longest outside of my top 4, out of deliberations at a late stage.
My 1-2-3 are ROCK OPERA drawn 14 for Richard Fahey, solid profile and very well handicapped, BEAR ROCK drawn in Stall 2 a Course and Distance winner scope still to progress up the handicap and ANIMATE drawn in Stall 4 who returned to form a little last time and still below its last winning mark. IF the early draw bias suggested middle to high then my very close 4 rated and well worth a small punt to 5th with any bookies enhancing is EXPERT ANGEL winner last time, still below previous win mark despite a penalty and drawn in Stall 15 (Northern)
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TRACKERS
Sandown 1.50 Shagraan
Haydock 3.50 Tiriac (see notes)
Nottingham 5.53 Fenlander
Bellewstown 7.30 Mother Ship (race reserve may not run)