Saturday 3rd August
By SP2A Analysis
Goodwood 3.35 Stewards Cup - 6 furlongs - Good to Firm - 28 run - Good to Firm
The usual cavalry charge and as always easy to make claims and counterclaims for most of these. Draw wise, very low or very high can often be best but being at or near the pace is equally important and I think it's best to hedge and look at the race in totality of its form and also to spread the investment across the draw.
I am adding 2 horses now to the TRACKER following assessment of both for this race. I think that both Allezdancer and Strike Red can be winning big Sprint 6 furlongs handicaps in the next 10-12 weeks but both will need some rain and Good to Soft conditions to have optimum chances.
At the top of the market we have the 3 year old Purosangue and the impressive Royal Ascot runner up Dark Trooper, both could be ahead of the handicapper, but this is a deep and impressive field and I don't think 5/1 or lower is value for anything in this field given the ability of the horses, draw bias confusion or overall form of the 2 named.
Albasheer is quirky but talented, Billyjo will have understandable support given his run here a few days ago and the yard form but again, I'm not really feeling the value against the win probability. The likes of Lethal Levi whose mark is rising and whose only Course run was disappointing and Ferrous who has been visibly unlucky the last twice made my final short list before being discarded as 5th and 6th top rated. At bigger odds, I would not be at all surprised to dee big runs from Rocket Rodney and Rumstar and Rohann is a really silly price considering his cv...if you want a £1 e/w on something at 40/1 or bigger then Rohann and Rocket Rodney would be my suggestions.
I have a clear top 4 though and in preference order they are-:
APOLLO ONE - runner up here and at Royal Ascot last season in heritage Sprints off marks of 97 and 100. A quiet season so far but could have a prime berth in Stall 27 and a mark of 102 is well within win or place scope for this one who could get a lovely tow up the Stands side.
DARK THIRTY a drop from 7 furlongs looks sensible as it has been fading in the final 100 yards in some hot 7 furlong races, looks very well handicapped on the back of those very decent runs and often very prominent at the 6 furlong stage of the race and an impressive winner the last time it ran at this trip.
RAMAZAN top weight but a very decent 5lbs claimer, another who is dropped from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs and who will surely be doing all it's vest work in the closing stages from the centre of the draw with scope therefore to go with any early pace and to get cover on either side of the Course. Tactically this one holds a very strong hand.
COVER UP is a bit more speculative but is an as yet scopey and frustrating 4 year old for the Gosdens. I just feel that we have seen nothing like the best of this horse yet but we have seen some significant promise and drawn 26 if the pace is on that side then it may finally have a genuine chance of backing up my judgement.
(North)
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Goodwood 2.25 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 14 run - Good to Firm
A few of these are in great form but carry penalties that might just put then at or beyond their current ceilings, for that reason I will take on Fairbanks (up 5lbs), Align The Stars (up 7lbs) and Dancing In Paris, who is in very consistent form but getting more weight as a consequence.
The drop in trip is logical for True Legend and he is feared along with Great Bedwyn who is upped in trip and both made my final shortlist of 5 horses. I will TRACK Calling The Wind who has been off for 365 days (a day short of the leap year) and who will surely need the run.
KNIGHTSWOOD is 3rd rated so will be nominated reserve if either of the more speculative tips are a non runner.
TIDES OF WAR is a Course and Distance winner at this Class off a mark of 85, in a deeper race here the course form does stand out and a mark of 89 is still well below it's best winning marks. I think it's well placed here to pick up e/w money at least and 40/1 early is ridiculous value. FORZA ORTA is also back to a winning mark and that run came on Good to Firm Going and off a mark of 86, once again I feel the price around 16/1 or better is great value. (TA)
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