Saturday 30th November
By SP2A Analysis
NEWBURY 3.00 Coral Gold Cup - Hcap Cl 1 - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 14 run - Good / Good to Soft
A race that's usually run in Soft or Heavy Conditions and therefore a more severe test of Jumping and Stamina than may be the case in what looks like a sub-par renewal with I suspect a number not being risked on the ground.
It's something of a conundrum and I will put up a pair at speculative prices that I think are best suited by the abnormal conditions of the race this year.
Plenty though have valid claims, not in the least the two at longest prices the veterans Sam Brown and Remastered, we'll always talk about his 2021 fall in this race when tipped at huge odds and travelling like a dream and a runner up effort in 2022 merely emphasised how unlucky he has been in this race. He isn't the horse of 2021 or 2022 but still running with enthusiasm and this isn't the quality of those years either.
Henry's Friend and Gaia Des Liteaux may have longer term targets, Kandoo Kid is upped in trip on seasonal debut, Senior Chief carries a 9lbs penalty for a cheltenham win for De Bromhead and Broadway Boy is in excellent form but is he half a stone better on The Course at Cheltenham?
MICHAEL is very keen on the Mullins runner the somewhat unexposed HORANTZAU D'AIRY so to allow a small punt on that if you wish, I have limited myself to my top rated pair.
VITTORINO ticks all the boxes for the in-form Venetia Williams yard and is especially dangerous when fresh, her horses have clicked, this is one that doesn't need deep mud and I'll be disappointed if we're not bang in contention jumping the last. MIDNIGHT RIVER really caught my eye despite being a bigger price and second string for his Yard. He is very lightly raced, he travels very well in races and was travelling very well and being hunted around the outside of the field when falling in this race last year. I'm not overly concerned that the stable jockey goes elsewhere and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the first 4 home here. (The Advisor)
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NEWCASTLE 3.20 Rehearsal Chase - Handicap - Class 1 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run - Good
The Changing Man is the one to beat but the price looks skinny. Bowtogreatness is a real danger despite a 4lbs penalty, I am adding Donny Boy a very nice prospect for Nick Alexander who will win (possibly slightly easier) races soon. Some Scope will enjoy the long Straights here especially if a wind operation has worked and was my 3rd highest rated.
I'm very sweet though on the in-form NEON MOON for the Pipe yard, this one has been revitalised by a wind operation and seems to be running pain free and enjoying racing one again. BLACKJACK MAGIC is a very dangerous horse when fresh and a bit more speculative but past evidence is that this might be the right time to catch this one and I've no doubt he will be fit enough if good enough.
A small mention for one at 33-40/1 if you want a small side stake, Lizzie Quinlan has her horses in very good form and SPECIAL RATE @ 33/1 who was progressive last season but who fell on seasonal debut is one to follow and TRACK too and there will be a lot of poorer long shots than this one running today. (North)
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FAIRYHOUSE 3.05 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 25 run - Yielding
I'll list the dangers first who were seriously considered but just left out and they include Warm In Gorey who runs with a penalty, Farmers Lodge who looks just a little bit too short in the market for the actual form, Barry Lydon who will certainly relish this ground which brings him in to the picture and especially Banpironsa a very nice De Bromhead prospect who I have added to my TRACKER today.
My top 3 rated are TONAGHNEAVE WELL who has a cracking chance upped to what is I think its best trip after a promising seasonal debut over shorter. GOLDEN JOY who has been highly tried at 2 miles but whose best form in France was at this trip for Elliott and the other Elliott runner HARSH, a recruit from the young O'Brien for whom his best race was at this trip and who is effectively only 1lb higher mark today when Claims are considered.
With the 25 runners I like to have a few small side bets and look for something at 25/1 or higher...Heliko Conti @ 14/1 back hurdling is outside of that price range but deserves a mention, Highland Charge is actually very well handicapped despite top weight back over Hurdles and would certainly be a danger but the best options may be KRABAT at around 40/1 a very well handicapped outsider now race fit and COZONE at around 33/1 who has shown promise more than once in these big field cavalry charges. (Sean)
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RJ
A pair at nice each way odds worth a small stake on a decent Newbury Card today are-
LE MILOS at 17/2 who just got the nod over Twinjet in the 12.40 Handicap Chase, and
ISSAM @ 7/1 whose fitness advantage may come into play in the competitive looking Handicap Hurdle at 1.54.
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