Saturday 28th September
By SP2A Analysis
Newmarket 3.40 Cambridgeshire Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 1 furlong - 32 run - Soft
A few points to start with, the Course does drain very well being Chalk based, it went from Heavy to Soft yesterday in drying winds but I don't think it'll be anything but sticky soft today.
All of the punditry I've read for this race suggests a high draw is a must, it's not factually wrong to point that out, but what I would point out too is that the 2022 and 2023 runnings were on genuinely Good Ground and unusually firm Good to Firm respectively, so it's a trap that may be easy to just fall in to. I've considered every horse in the race, have tipped on their overall merits and that includes some drawn in the middle and lower side.
It's a long old straight, nine furlongs, pretty unique in that regard and the rider of any horse at that sort of trip here MUST be able to judge pace, that is an art-form that not all of them have in their locker. The steepest climb on the Course is in the closing 300 yards!
So lets whittle down those i looked at but ultimately discarded at mid point, Toimy Son, and the Northern raiders Bennetot and Bopedro may just be better at a mile, La Trinidad another northern raider is also a proven miler but at 100/1 might be worth a quid each way as the price is excessive.
The early favourite Roi De France and the low drawn Balmacara have decent chances and I certainly haven't discarded Balmacaraon any Draw concern and both worry me. Under Siege and Poniros are unexposed types who would have been very close to selections had the rains not come and both are similar dangers, Ron O is very much an in form dark horse and if the high numbers do prevail, he'll be right in the thick of it.
There are then three who very nearly made my final cut who could all run very big races and they are Paddy The Squire who is a very likeable 4 year old drawn 21, he was just left out because I think a stablemate is slightly better suited today. Empirestateofmind is a fine horse, lightly raced, well handicapped and one who could run a big race here as is Majestic, the 2022 winner who is a bit of a forgotten horse and another drawn high. The Irish raiders Thissongisforyou and Norwalk Havoc aren't lightly discounted but the former in particular has eased in the market with the heavy rain having been punted off Beachy Head metaphorically earlier in the week.
I was left then with a short list of 6, I'll list the top 4 but if you want to play a couple for small e/w odds to very significant enhanced places then my suggestions are SILVER SWORD who could be very well handicapped, drawn in 29, Course and soft ground form and THEORYOFEVERYTHING who is in the TRACKER (together with Benetot) and who really does tick all the right boxes...
My top 4 in preference order are; LIBERTY LANE, the Yard is in cracking big race Saturday form, this one stands the closest scrutiny on best form and I think would be considerably shorter in price if it was drawn in the 20's or 30's, I'm not put off at all by the low draw as I think class can win out!. DUAL IDENTITY is drawn 30 and with a high drawn box ticked, ticks just about every other box with aplomb, Going, trip, stamina and handicap mark. GODWINSON might give William Haggas another shot in the arm as his horses are certainly in better form now than in mid summer and drawn 27. proven in Good to Soft and over a longer trip than this, he looks a very solid each way punt. At a bigger price I do like MR KING - (stablemate of the aforementioned Paddy The Squire), MR KING is the sort of lightly raced unexposed type who can flourish in this sort of race and has form at 10 furlongs and just edged his stable mate on the draw in 33 as opposed to 21 for PTS. (RJ)
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Listowel 4.30 - Handicap Chase - 2 miles 6 furlongs - Soft > Heavy 15 tun
When it gets soft here it can change the Course dynamics considerably from being a tight easy trip to being an absolute slog in the mud.
Looking at the 15 runners not too many have form in attritional conditions but a couple (Embittered who has changed Yard and Slane Hill who might just need the run - have been added today to the TRACKER). Donacheady Gale ran well here in the week and would be one to keep an eye on too going forwards, Falco Blitz may also need the run and possibly a few pounds off the handicapper and both Walnut Beach and Low Ella may be vulnerable in the underfoot conditions.
I'm very happy with a top 3 rated to dominate here and in order of preference they are FLAKING MANUVEUR who has moved to Gordon Elliott after a slightly unlucky run last time and who can quickly reward connections for the move. THE SHORT GO from the De Bromhead yard has won on the ground, has proven stamina to win over 3 miles and looks a very solid each way punt. Both are marginally preferred to the favourite MOONOVERCLOON who should make a bold bid here and for whom the going was the slight niggle that rated it third and not higher. (MG)
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We looked at a few other races including the 4.05 at Market Rasen but those we looked at looked more likely than not to be favourite / short priced runner dominated.