Saturday 27th July
By SP2A Analysis
York 4.35 - Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile - 15 run - Good to Firm
Boy Douglas heads the market off form figures of 2-1-2 off marks of 73-74-77 and runs off 78 here. A steady run of form starting in Class 5. At around 4/1, I fear him but am happy to take him on. Barley is in good form currently but a detailed look back on past form suggests he has rarely shown anything like his best form at York, and is left out purely because of that!. Eagle Day is another in form and on a hat trick after wins off marks of 71 and 74 and I think is opposable off a mark of 79. I am going to TRACK - Power Of Gold - after today, a return off a 6 month break and a change of Trainer - this one loves Good to Firm and I think after a run can be found a nice opportunity any time hooves are rattling. The one itch I found it hard not to scratch is Hortzador, one who tends to pop up when least expected but fails when apparently well primed, I'll leave that thought with you.
I was left with a short list of 3 and if you want a third rated punt with 15 runners and enhanced places the third rated is AL MARMAR who runs mostly on the AW but who is fine on Good to Firm turf and off a very nice mark for the under-rated Gemma Tutty.
My top 2 rated though are THEME PARK who loves Good to Firm ground, has a decent Course record and who looks very well handicapped and also well drawn in 4, to take up a nice position into the far bend. ZOZIMUS is also on a very nice handicap mark now and my only niggle is the tendency to start slowly, but if he can engineer a safe passage, he can be rattling home fast and late. (North)
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Newcastle 4.25 Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile - 14 run - Standard
As I've mentioned a lot, particularly in the winter when this track rides deep, this is a long old straight where stamina is a big asset. It's Class 6 low grade fare but you can often find value in this type of race.
I narrowed the 14 runners down to 5 most likely and of them the market leaders Little Ted and Martins Brig stand out. I can't split them for "win value" so will have a small side reverse F/Cast on them. I don't think Martins Brig will be allowed to slip this field like he did over Course and Distance last time. I noted Barleybrown, a Course and Distance winner in the Spring whose mark has fallen back to a nice level, but feel he might be more of a winter AW horse when the track is harrowed much deeper.
I think therefore that the e/w value lies with STRUCK GOLD who can be a hostage to slow starts but who is very well handicapped and I think over-priced because of this. The booking of Hayley Turner really catches my eye as she won't panic if she does miss the break, trying to catch up too soon is never going to work on this straight track, but I figure she'll coax the horse for 1/2 mile and allow it to slowly make its way to the back of the pack with minimal exertion. Visualisation is key in this type of scenario, so I hope I'm right. The other selection is BALQAA who also has some decent Course and Distance form and on some form lines of the not too distant past might be thrown in here off a mark below 50 (49 to be exact). (AW)
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