Saturday 25th January
By SP2A Analysis
CHELTENHAM 1.50 Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 2 miles 4 and 1.2 furlongs - Soft - 11 run
If Ginny's Destiny who has a Course and Distance winning form off a mark of 141 and a place off a mark of 147, is fit and well and primes, then a win saver bet at around 3/1 may seem good value. The niggle is pre-Christmas form and a mark of 155, so any win-saver would be at your discretion.
Imperial Saint strikes me as a better horse on flatter "Park type" Courses and Iroko doesn't seem like great value price wise. At bigger Odds you can't ever write off Torn And Frayed here and he could nick a place, whilst the real unknown quantity is Moon D'Orange, who may well run very well at what may be his best trip.
If we look for each way value though the proven Course form and the actual winning form shown by GEMIRANDE and IL RIDOTO at earlier Course Fixtures this season looks solid enough form and despite being hiked up a bit in the Handicap for those runs, I don't think this is a great renewal at all and if Ginny's Destiny doesn't click, then something else has to win this (The Advisor)
DONCASTER 3.15 Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 3 miles - 17 run Good to Soft
The drying ground raises the biggest question here and it means that if some who are proven front runners can get in to a nice rhythm they may take a lot of catching. You'd think though that the ground will be tacky so it is probable that the likes of Bowtogreatness and Frero Banbou may set the race up for others to pass them in the closing stages. I will be fearful that these two don;t slip the field though and hope that they take each other on too early in the race.
The Changing Man seems a vulnerable favourite to me in a race of this depth, Young Buster would be the one who is most likely to "pop up" at a price, some early promise has faded but I've always thought this sort of trip may suit him.
Ultimately I was left with a short list of 5 horses of whom CHARLIE UBERALLES; Docpickedme and FORWARD PLAN ran in a race here recently and finished 1-2-3. Looking back at the race, FORWARD PLAN finished in a place but staying on and I think the more genuine early pace likely here will suit him, I think CHARLIE UBERALLES had a bit in hand of Dontpickme but I also feel that the one they all have to beat is SNIPE whose form of it's last run has been massively franked since.
If there is a dour stayer in here who could bustle them all up in the closing stages it would be FAMOUS BRIDGE and with enhanced places to 5th, he might be a small e/w saver for some. (Northern)
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FAIRYHOUSE 1.03 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 19 run - Soft
The top 6-8 in the market all have trip or Going concerns for me and of them only BALDURS GATE who ran runner up in this race last season would look each way value. Mahler Appeal looks a bit high in the handicap, Eddies Pride has a squeak on past form and I looked very long and hard at Made In The Woods, who might just need this run but who was my 4th best rated.
At 25/1 or more though I have more than a sneaky fancy and am actually quietly confident that these Conditions may be optimum and ideal for both ATACANTER who has suggested more than a few times that he can take a hand in a race like this and TULLYHOGUE FORT who has proven stamina in the mud off a very nice mark and JJ Slevin booking the icing on the cake, can give us a nice e/w return to 5 place (Sean - Placespotter)
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At Uttoxeter on a tricky Card - TWYFORDS DIAMOND in the 4.20 race is Robins each way banker on the Staffordshire Track's Card (Robin)