Saturday 24th May
By SP2A Analysis
Haydock 1.15 - Handicap - Class 3 - 1 mile - 14 run - Good (some showers)
I'm assuming Going as Good with possibly soft patches if rain sets in.
Great Chieftain at 3/1 is a worthy favourite and whilst I'd not put you off a "win saver", I do have far more confidence in a couple at nice each way prices, but with enhanced odds the percentage call on Great Chieftain placing at worst is very high.
No Retreat doesn't really enthuse me at all, I will TRACK forwards after today both Theoryofeverything and Lattam, Theoryofeverything is a Class 2 horse in a Class 3 race, a massive danger but I think will come on considerably for the run, Lattam was lightly raced last season and would ideally want softer ground at somewhere like York. Candonomore certainly has an appropriate name and this likeable sort is thrown in deeper here and whilst not one that jumps out at me, may well prove me wrong. Thunder Roar would be a factor of we had a deluge, or more likely here, if they have over-watered, and Dashing Doray is another who might need more rain, or the hoses left on.
The pair I most like at sporting each way prices though are BLUE FOR YOU who has had 2 rus now, should be spot on race fit, runs off a very nice handicap mark, no Going concerns and any rain won't be a concern either, just looks primed and ready to me, as does EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, lightly raced, rain a plus, and really good each way value off this mark at any price around or above 12/1 .(The Advisor)
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Goodwood 3.45 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Soft
French Master is a lightly raced potential Gosden yard improver but 6/4, on ground that might be "tacky" is too short for me to either punt or be overly concerned about. I want each way value and I think a few provide it at speculative odds.
I think 5/1 is skinny value e/w for Master Builder, Anzac Day is very inexperienced and is another who could be anything frankly. Story Horse is a tenacious battler who is my 3rd best rated (handy if we have a non runner) and Loughville, a progressive type is another serious danger but an 8lb hike by the handicapper looks harsh!
I'm most keen on DANCING IN PARIS, needed return run and will improve for it, on a career high mark but now fully furnished as a 5 year old and one who I think has scope to push the handicap mark higher. At more speculative Odds and with stamina to prove, but confidence that it will, I really have a soft spot for OCEAN OF DREAMS who is unexposed, can improve and hasn't exactly been stopping at 12 furlongs (RJ)
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The Curragh - 2.30 - Handicap 1 mile 2 furlongs - 19 Run - Good / Good to Soft
Around a dozen of these have solid chances so lets wizz through the ones considered and discarded before going for a final 3 , with an added one at a huge price.
From the top end of the market, I think Himalayan Heights is on a tough mark after an 8lbs rise and may be best very fresh, Cloud Sector has won 5 of last 6 races but this is markedly tougher, the trio of Dutch Gold (my 5th best rated) a Course and Distance winner drawn high may be a better 12 furlong horse now and both Apercu and Aeronautic may need a bit further and more rain respectively but very much feared. I am adding Retracement to my TRACKER after today, a very unexposed ex William Haggas horse who Johnny Murtagh may have a lot of fun with, but hopefully not today as it may need the run.
My clear top 3 though are MASHMOOR, very highly tried on occasions last year that suggests it is out of form and over the top, I'm not so sure though as a mark of 96 is "eye catching" and this Course and Distance winner can explode back to life at some point i'm convinced off this sort of mark and grade. CEALLACH is 10lbs lower than when running respectably in midfield in this race 12 months ago and is another whose handicap mark jumps off the page from a low draw and STAR HARBOUR is another who has dropped back to a very attractive handicap mark, below 100 and just 1lb above ast win mark of 96, a Course winner, proven stamina and a low draw boosts expectations.
If there is one horse on this Card today whse price simply does not reflect its chances it is SOARING MONARCH , has run well before over Course and Distance, in these conditions off a similar mark and 40-50/1 is way too high in my opinion, I'll have a small stake side bet to 5th place enhanced.
(Sean)
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Cartmel 6.38 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 and 1/2 furlongs - 12 run - Good to Soft
Judicial Review may need the run for the local Trainer James Moffatt, Fathers Advice ran well at Ayr last time but I'm not really sure what he beat there?, Super citizen is very well handicapped for brian Hughes, clear 3rd rated in my analysis but would not want too much rain.
My top pair though are BIG BEE HIVE who won this race last year and off a lower mark today and at a bigger price, LIGHTS ARE GREEN a Course and Distance winner, will come on for a recent run and almost certainly in preparation for this and almost spot on that last win mark. (Northern)
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TRACKERS
Just the one today as we focus on quality of 2025 form over quantity of past season form.
Goodwood 1.30 - Salamanca - noted last time and sporting e/w chance.