Saturday 24th August
By SP2A Analysis
YORK 2.25 - Melrose Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 3 year olds - Good to Firm - 16 run
A lot in with chances here and some not as obvious as the actual form suggests it might be if you look at the markets. At the top end of the markets Wild Waves rather blotted a progressive sequence last time out, Tactician has won at this trip and at two miles but with a penalty may be exposed to an improver. THE EQUATOR from APOB meanwhile is strongly fancied by MICHAEL our Irish Tipster and I am equally keen on him here (will be proofed as MG - Ian) . Going Remote is another interesting Irish contender who may have hit the front too soon last time and not lightly discounted, Reaching High is a steady improver but penalised 11lbs for an AW in, Champagne Prince stepped up from a mile to 12 furlongs with a strong run last time but I'm always wary of Shergar Cup form and Dramatic Star is being backed more i suspect of being "pricewised" by Segal than on the realisation that he didn't really deliver last time and the yard seems to be under a bit of a cloud.
There are 3 I really liked at bigger prices to join THE EQUATOR and the second and third rated in order of preference are TOO BOSSY FOR US who has improved stepping up in trip from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs and this trip last time and looks to be a horse yet to find its handicap ceiling and SPACEPORT another one who is steadily progressing and whose prominent running style and proven stamina looks tailor made for the conditions here. He just got the nod over Tryfan, who I think may be a dark one at a big price! (TA / MG)
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York 3.35 Ebor Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - 21 run - Good to Firm
A race where you can really make a case for every runner and therefore one I'll stick clearly to my top 3 rated.
The most likely of those not in my top 3 are Fairbanks who has good recent form and clearly a solid each way shout, My Mate Mozzie, my 4th rated who ran well at Royal Ascot and at Galway over the jumps, Iron Lion for O'Meara who is upped in trip and Relentless Voyager who runs off top weight and who also has very strong each way credentials and who was my clear 5th best rated.
My top 3 though are QUEENSTOWN a worthy favourite and very strong if you read the collateral form with Kyprios literally, ONEFORTHEGUTTER who is a big price but whose collateral form reads very well and the Yard showed earlier in the week that you can ignore the price if their form does stack up and finally CHILLINGHAM another who seems overpriced on some very solid Class 2 form and whose high draw would back recent trends for this race in terms of any draw bias. It's uber competitive so I prefer to look for some bigger priced value to go with the favourite who may just be a cut above! (Northern)
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York 5.20 Handicap - Class 2 -1 mile 2 and 1/2 furlongs - 17 run - Class 2.
The "get out" race for many and one where I have a top 5 but need to drop a couple reluctantly.
Of those not in the top 5, Have Secret has built up a solid sequence but not great e/w value as a result, Rathgar could be one to arrive late on the scene if the pace fractions are a bit too adventurous, the rest for me were much of a muchness.
My 4th and 5th rated are KILLYBEGS WARRIOR who some may want a small e/w on as 4th rated and who is looking incredibly well handicapped now as a result of some below par runs but signs of running back in to some form of late and a staggering 8lbs lower than when placed in this last season. My 5th rated and a real danger IF a second wind operation has worked as he won after the first one and has great CD form is Maraba The Champ, I think though this one could be anything at the moment, had he run well after the operation, he'd be in my top 3 but i just have a nagging doubt!
My top 3 are - DUAL IDENTITY who ticks every box for me and who has been unlucky with the Draw and in running a few times but ideally berthed today in Stall 6, BYSTANDER who didn't enjoy a slow dawdling tactical race here but who should have this race set up nicely for a strong finish (which would also suit Rathgar as we have mentioned) and CHASING APHRODITE a TRACKER horse who drops back in trip which is a big plus and whose prominent running style especially from Stall 4 may give himself and my other pair a lovely lead in to this race - visualisation is important and my vision is of CA leading DI and Bystander to a 1-2-3 finish! (Northern)
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CAROLYN - 2 year Olds - Newmarket 3.20
A 19 runner Auction race on Good Going but a fair bit of rain possible, lots of unexposed possible improvers but the most exposed in the race MISS COLLADA looked the best each way punt the more i looked at its form, and I think it can put the experience to good use here and not ground dependent.
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RJ - Goodwood - Good to Soft already may turn softer
3.15 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - SWEET REWARD is just a pound above the mark it won this race off last season and that was on soft ground and he looks a very solid each way put - more so with every drop of rain
4.25 - 1 mile 6 furlongs CRESCENT LAKE has strong Course and Distance form and form on all ground from Good to Firm to Good to Soft and looks very solid here, the rain has just put me off the unexposed Sunbelt from the Gosden yard who may have been thrown in here on Good ground and may still be
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