Saturday 22nd June - Royal Ascot - Day 5

5.05 WOKINGHAM HANDICAP - Class 2 - 6 furlongs -28 run - Good to Firm

 

The Straight Course has generally favoured Middle to High and at 6 furlongs this week that has been the pattern. It's NOT impossible though to win from a low draw or to run a good place and on occasions, very high has not been the "golden highway" you'd necessarily imagine. I do wonder if on Thursday night they put a bit less water on the far rail and a bit more on the Stands Rail just to mitigate any accusations of the draw being too big a factor, in reality, the Ground Staff have delivered an exceptional surface all week.

 

I think in these scenarios you can "overthink" things, so I'll lay out my analysis and logic in full.

 

DARK TROOPER and ALBASHEER (drawn 24 and 31 respectively) dominate the market and I can see why. We've nominated them for the Placepot and a 1-2 would be no surprise. I would definitely prefer to be on ALBASHEER on proven Good to Firm Going though and rely on Hollie Doyle to have the courage to hug the rail if she thinks that's the best option or to tactically drop a few yards off it otherwise.

 

I would be VERY keen actually on a few drawn LOW on actual analysis and Apollo One (dr 2) who was excellent here and at Goodwood on extremes of Going last season may just have to wait for Goodwood but is very much feared, I would also be tipping both Glenfinnan and Juan Les Pains (dr 4 and 7 respectively) if those draw numbers were preceded by a 1 or 2. 

 

Taking ALBASHEER therefore as a tip, that leaves me with 4 others who I am most keen on and the draw is a key consideration for almost all of them.

 

MUMS TIPPLE is drawn 11, on the low side of the centre and that would give scope to come down the middle or to drop in behind and find a route through. The horse has big field Ascot race experience and just looks primed and in peak form to me with still some upscope. RUMSTAR is another very progressive 4 year old drawn in Stall 25 and one whose ceiling may still be higher than this mark for a Yard never afraid to tilt at windmills. DESERT COP has a single figure draw in Stall 8 , off a nice handicap mark and another that I think we still have to see the very best of. Finally is COVER UP for the Gosden yard drawn in Stall 29 and the one who may give ALBASHEER the perfect lead through from that side as it's got a really solid 5 furlong speed and yet the pedigree suggests that 6 furlongs should be the optimum trip. Its early pace should ensure that the Stands side are very competitive early in the race. 

 

Hopefully the draw bias won't swing from middle/high to low but if it does in the earlier Sprint races, you have my thoughts on what horses may most benefit, especially Apollo One!. 

 

(TA)