Saturday 21st September

Ayr Silver Cup 2.25 - Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 23 run - Good

 

Brooklyn Nine Nine and Alfa Kellenic head the market and at the prices don't in my opinion represent great value. There are a few other dangerous 3 year olds in this field but it's not a race I'd really associate with a younger type of horse and although I rate and fear the likes of Two Tribes, Aramram and Roberto Caro an Irish raider, on this occasion I am content to overlook them for investment purposes.

 

Of the older more exposed types Be Proud @ 28/1  and Never Dark @ 40/1  at very nice each way Odds just missed the top 4 rated and Never Dark especially could be worth a small side bet as it's the clear pace angle drawn high and if the Stands side isn't a great disadvantage could actually get a lovely run up the rail and take a deal of catching.

 

My top 4 rated though are - SUMMERGHAND who may be a heart over head tip but who is incredibly well handicapped and who has shown signs that whilst he's not the horse he was, he's still more than capable in this sort of company. ADMIRAL D is very overpriced I feel in the early morning markets, hopefully no one will tip this up for the sheep to follow later on but it would be worth taking a price I think. Drawn in Stall 13 is tactically a good place to be, a slow start to the season after an AW Winter campaign and very well handicapped in my opinion fit and crucially fresh. LUCKY MAN has a 5lbs penalty for a recent win but looks to be in excellent form and Stall 10 again looks a prime pitch. Finally, BERGERAC whose run last time was possibly better than the finishing place suggested and who has rediscovered enthusiasm and consistency in recent runs.

 

Ayr Gold Cup 3.35 -  Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 25 run - Good

 

In this one I do think that the market leaders American Affair and Ramazan do look very strong and solid and I will have a small reverse F/Cast as a side stake. 

 

A few may be disadvantaged by a high draw on the evidence of yesterday but are very capable of winning if the Stall draw is not a negative, amongst these is the admirable Billyjo who seems to get no luck in terms of Stall number. I can make claims for the likes of Jordan Electrics who has been a winning machine most of this season, Glenfinnan whose 5lbs penalty might just be a few pounds too much and Rohaan who should be bang in contention from Stall 8. The other one who was 5th rated and really like a worm niggling in my brain is KINGS LYNN @ 33/1 an ultimate "cliff horse" but really this is the best chance in terms of handicap mark and draw in a very long time, and I will personally have a small side bet on him.

 

My top 4 rated just above KIngs lynn though are as follows-

 

MOSTABSHIR another who has flattered to deceive a few times but who really does tick all the boxes today and the Yard is most definitely in better form now I think that in June and July. ORAZIO whose Royal Ascot run I feel has been overlooked a little and who arrives here fresh and a Track that may suit a lot better. COMMANCHE FALLS is top weight on merit and whilst he gets no help from the handicapper he is still well handicapped on his very best marks and is usually in slightly better company than this. Finally ARAMIS GREY a very lightly raced and occasionally unlucky mare whose form analysis is a bit of an eye-catcher and another who could be absolutely primed here like Admiral D in the Silver Cup

 

(Northern)