Saturday 21st June (Ascot Day 5)
By SP2A Analysis
ASCOT 5.00 - Wokingham Handicap - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 28 run - Good to Firm
A big field but there are some obvious contenders in here who cannot be ignored and a few lurking off nice marks and a couple who have excellent form chances but whose handicap marks are at career highs.
I have split the draw in the low (up to 10) middle (10 to 20) and high (20 plus) and tried to get a feel for the most likely in each segment. The logic is that if there is a balance we have horses across the field, if there isn't at least all of our eggs aren't in one basket and if as we found with Bullet Point earlier in the week we have one who wins on its side but beaten by the Draw, we have horses to follow whose runs can be "marked up"
Those who just missed the final 7 in my short list include the STRONG FAVOURITE who is MORE THUNDER. Winner for this race last year, in form yard but a horse who can be inconsistent, looks trained to the minute - 11/4 in a 28 runner race is very short, if you want the "win saver" feel free, it's the most logical winner after all. City House and Germanic, drawn 5 and 10 from the North both have realistic chances on the form book but both may prefer a bit more cut, Aramram is a real danger too, but in the final analysis he just seems a bit in the grip of the handicapper now.
I was left with a final list of 7 and just dropping off the bottom I will leave out ZOUM ZOUM who would be "reserve" if we have a non runner. Drawn high he is my 3rd rated that side but the niggle would be the yard form this week overall disappointing.
Drawn LOW I think that GOLDEN MIND for the Fahey team with young Fentiman claiming and TEN POUNDS who drops back from 7 furlongs but whose "choke out" style may be ideally suited to the race are my preferred pair. Down the MIDDLE , it is hard to look past APOLLO ONE who despite top weight is very consistent and usually right in the mix and JARRAAF who ran well here last season and who looks primed again with an excellent Course and Distance record and finally on the Stands HIGH draw side, ORAZIO who is an absolute standing dish here and who won't be in any way inconvenienced by the near year off in my opinion and HOLKHAM BAY another Course and Distance winner who likes good to fim Going.
If I had to rate them 1-6 in order it would be ORAZIO ; JARRAAF , HOLKHAM BAY; APOLLO ONE, GOLDEN MIND and TEN POUNDS (The Speculator)
----
Ascot 5.35 - Golden Gates Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 16 run - Good to Firm
A half dozen of the 16 runner field caught my eye and big runs from Glen To Glen and Seraph Gabriel who is from Ireland, would not surprise.The dark horse in the race may well be DAKOTA BLUE an improving and strong looking horse who may surprise a few. It's hard to leave out TYCOON another possible improver, of which there are a number in this race, especially with the Gosden yard in such form.
My clear top 2 rated though are BEST SECRET who seems to be a hold up horse but who clearly has a real engine and impressive turn of foot and EL BURHAN another very strong traveller at shorter who looks to have the pedigree to get this trip (The Advisor)
----
OTHER RACES
3.05 - GHOSTWRITER has a very good each way profile for this race and one who some very respected scribes are very keen on is the Haggas horse CANDLEFORD off a year break but who has allegedly been flying at home and can win fresh (RJ)
3.40 - TOPGEAR looks a very strong each way contender here as does ELITE STATUS whose form dipped at the end of last season but who looks to be a proper summer horse to me and a probable improver today. (RJ)
4.20 - A competitive affair in which CALIFORNIA DREAMER is another who seems to be something of a "talking horse" and SPY CHIEF a horse who could have some very serious untapped improvement yet.
-----
PLACEPOT
2.30 - 9 Venetian Lace / 2 Humidity
3.05 - see above = 5 + 7
3.40 - see above = 13 + 5 Insherin
4.20 - see above = 15 + 13
5.00 - see above = 15 + 5
5.35 - see above = 4 + 6