Saturday 1st June
By SP2A Analysis
EPSOM DERBY 4.30 - 1 Mile 4 Furlongs (Colts only) Good to Soft - 16 run
This doesn't look like a decent renewal to me, something has to win it and it's often the case in this race that something with a big price pops up in the places.
I don't think the O'Brien yard is remotely in the form it has been in the past in terms of their 3 year OLd crop, they may be focussing on Royal Ascot and the Autumn Races in Europe and America but I see nothing in terms of value in CITY OF TROY who on the evidence of its sole 3 year old run has not trained on (yet) and is as far away from being the next "Frankel" as anything else in the field.
In terms of quantifiable evidence this season and form and pedigree I thought there were 5 in here who represent varying degrees of confidence and price value. Outside of those and City Of Troy, stablemate Los Angeles is more feared and the likes of Dancing Gemini and Macduff, could run well enough too.
Of those 5 though, I would fear Voyage, a late starter and wholly unexposed Richard Hannon horse and Dallas Star who has a solid 12 furlong pedigree and an ability to race prominently. A placed run from either of those would not surprise.
I will have a small bet at decent odds though on AMBIENT FRIENDLY who had what I felt was the most impressive of the Trial wins and who should run a big race on that basis. BELLUM JUSTUM has won at a mile and 10 furlongs in impressive if not spectacular style, this is clearly a step in trip and quality of race but of the 10 furlong winners it appealed most and there is genuine 12 furlong ability and evidence in the Sires side of the pedigree. At bigger Odds I was also taken with the pedigree and ability to run prominently of SAYEDATY SADATY who if anything may be a crafty early e/w poke at The St Leger.
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WORCESTER 1.10 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 furlongs - 14 Run - Good
I don't think this will be summer "Good" ground as parts of the Track were underwater just a few weeks ago. It will be a genuine test of stamina therefore.
Top Of The Bay and Optimistic Joe are very much respected and feared but KENNACK BAY is in the TRACKER and takes an ease in grade here, twice a faller in tougher races when looking set to win, he should find these portable brush fences more forgiving. Of the remainder EASKEY LAD was impressive at the trip in 2 wins early last season winning off marks of 92 and 98, he then got absolutely clobbered by the Handicapper and upped in to seme decent races, and I really fancy his chances of returning to form here after a quiet return run. (DT)
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LISTOWEL 5.25 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 18 run - Good
I don't think there is great depth here but some nice enhanced places to attack.
Signorina Di Milano is a big price for any Elliott horse, on form it's probably the right price but there is always a niggle about taking these types from the yard on.
Presenting Cody @ 25/1 was decent before an extended break and ran well in a 3 mile P2P a few weeks back and is one I'm adding to the TRACKER.
My pair against the field though are WALKONTHEBRITESIDE who is upped in trip and one i noted staying on stoutly last time and i think one who can improve for the extra yardage here. At bigger Odds TILLOUGHNA has had a couple of runs so should be cherry ripe now and off a reduced mark has shown enough in a few good placed runs in these conditions and at the trip, to suggest an enhanced place should be the least we can expect. (Sean)
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