Saturday 19th October
By SP2A Analysis
Ascot Sprint Stakes - Group 1 Class 1 - 6 furlongs - 20 run - Soft
This is a non-handicap but we get some nice enhanced places. A lot has been written about the low Draw bias here especially in the Autumn, and whilst the stats are compelling, there have been notable exceptions on the tacky soft Going we are likely to get and the reconfiguration of the Course to the inner Round Course (the Hurdles track) on the inner circuit may also have something of an impact in the later straight races. We'll have to see exactly where the confines of the far rail are on the Straight track?
I do think that it's worth looking at 7 furlong form in this race more than 5 furlong form and for 6 furlong winners running hard through the line, as it's going to be a stamina and speed test and may suit hold up types IF they can get a clear passage.
Montassib has turned from a frustrating type to a consistent winning machine raced sparingly and in plain sight over the past 12 months or so and is not lightly discounted here. Elite Status and 2023 winner Art Power are similarly dangerous types as are Beauvatier a French raider on UK debut and Kinross the 2022 winner and 2023 runner up. At very big prices I really think that as my 5th rated overall VAFORTINO is worth a small investment at 40-50/1 with Course and Soft ground form and 7 furlong stamina.
The hardest one to fathom is Audience, possibly ideally drawn in Stall 2, drops back in trip but I do have going and form concerns and whilst I fear it more than any other horse, I've reluctantly bypassed it in favour of my top 3 rated.
Putting the incredible form of the Karl Burke horses over the past 2 seasons and his ability to train one to pitch perfect perfection on a given day, I really do want to be on both SWINGALONG and SPYCATCHER here. Their form is undeniable, suitability in these conditions proven and both had a run in this race last year so got a real sighter and both finished in the top 4. I'm really not focussing on the Draw as I think if its a huge bias either side you just have to take it on the chin and you can never predict it here in advance with enough confidence.
My 3rd rated and a little bit forgotten by the market is MILL STREAM who has had a very light season, likes some cut in the ground and possibly aimed all along at this race. It is Champions Day after all! So a top 3 and a small e/w on the far more speculative Vafortino is recommended (The Advisor)
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Ascot 4.35 Balmoral Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 20 run - Soft
At the top of the market are the likes of State Actor who carries a lot of Irish confidence, Thunder Run who has the highest dRaw and has to contend with ground softer than ideal, Carrytheone who has been knocking on the door but who I think is better at 7 furlongs that a mile on this sort of ground and Mr Professor, who is very closely aligned on form and profile to one of my top 5 rated horses here.
Add to the mix Toimy Son who was very impressive at Newmarket last time, the top weight Holloway Boy from an inform yard and along with several others a typically competitive close to the Card and the Flat season at Ascot.
My top 5 rated are as follows and I suggest normal stakes on the top pair and slightly smaller on the other 3 who all hold very strong claims at more speculative Odds.
BOPEDRO really ticks every box and this is a race O'Meara has a very strong record in a berth in Stall 3 may be ideal if you go with the majority view, but as we've seen elsewhere and here recently, that does not always work out on Autumn ground. DAYSOFOURLIVES is drawn in Stall 6 is a very strong contender and whilst i have no concerns if the ground is as advertised, any drying does no harm either.
My next 3 are more speculative but carry confidence higher than the market prices suggest.
STAR OF ORION steps back to a mile which I see as a big positive, Going and handicap mark look ideal and I think 33-40/1 is a huge price. MEXICALI ROSE has some Irish form on this sort of ground, arrives under the radar which I like and gets a single figure berth. Finally, LATTAM and Mr Professor finished 1-2 in the Lincoln to open the flat season and both have been standing in their stables we assume waiting for this race. LATTAM has very good form in the conditions and fresh off very similar breaks (121 days) and an underrated Trainer who can definitely prepare one! (Northern)
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RJ's each way pokes
1.20 Kyprios will take all the beating but of the Gosden pair and the remainder I think SWEET WILLIAM @ 9/1 is the each way value here.
2.35 It's a tight and very competitive race but the form profiles of both TIFFANY @ 8/1 and DOHA @ 12/1 lend themselves to small e/w bets (odds to 4th)
3.15 13 runners and very competitive but FACTEUR CHEVAL @ 7/1 stands out for me as the form and value punt and the late decision to supplement PRAGUE @ 12/1 is a tip in itself.
3.55 very hard to look beyond Calandagan and Economics but something has to place 3rd in a 12 runner heat and ROYAL RHYME @ 25/1 comes from a red hot yard who loves a big priced each poke in this sort of exalted company.
(RJ)
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TRACKERS
Ascot 4.35 Padishakh / Mirsky
Wolverhampton 8.30 Golden Delite